The coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) pandemic: simulation‐based assessment of outbreak responses and postpeak strategies – Struben – – System Dynamics Review – Wiley Online Library

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The coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) pandemic: simulation‐based assessment of outbreak responses and postpeak strategies – Struben – – System Dynamics Review – Wiley Online Library
System Dynamics Review

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The coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) pandemic: simulation‐based assessment of outbreak responses and postpeak strategies

Jeroen StrubenFirst published: 24 September 2020 https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1660SECTIONSPDFTOOLSSHARE

Abstract

It is critical to understand the impact of distinct interventions on the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. I develop a behavioral dynamic epidemic model for multifaceted policy analysis comprising endogenous virus transmission (from severe or mild/asymptomatic cases), social contacts, and case testing and reporting. Calibration of the system dynamics model to the ongoing outbreak (31 December 2019–15 May 2020) using multiple time series data (reported cases and deaths, performed tests, and social interaction proxies) from six countries (South Korea, Germany, Italy, France, Sweden, and the United States) informs an explanatory analysis of outbreak responses and postpeak strategies. Specifically, I demonstrate, first, how timing and efforts of testing‐capacity expansion and social‐contact reduction interplay to affect outbreak dynamics and can explain a large share of cross‐country variation in outbreak pathways. Second, absent at‐scale availability of pharmaceutical solutions, postpeak social contacts must remain well below prepandemic values. Third, proactive (targeted) interventions, when complementing general deconfinement readiness, can considerably increase admissible postpeak social contacts.

© 2020 System Dynamics Society

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic: simulation-based assessment of outbreak responses and post-peak strategies.By Jeroen StrubenIt is critical to understand the impact of distinct interventions on the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Struben develops a behavioral dynamic epidemic model for multifaceted policy analysis comprising endogenous virus transmission (from severe or mild/asymptomatic cases), social contacts, and case testing and reporting. Calibration of the system dynamics model to the ongoing outbreak (31 December 2019–15 May 2020) using multiple time series data (reported cases and deaths, performed tests, and social interaction proxies) from six countries (South Korea, Germany, Italy, France, Sweden, and the United States) informs an explanatory analysis of outbreak responses and postpeak strategies. Specifically, Struben demonstrates, first, how timing and efforts of testing‐capacity expansion and social‐contact reduction interplay to affect outbreak dynamics and can explain a large share of cross‐country variation in outbreak pathways. Second, absent at‐scale availability of pharmaceutical solutions, postpeak social contacts must remain well below prepandemic values. Third, proactive (targeted) interventions, when complementing general deconfinement readiness, can considerably increase admissible postpeak social contacts.This article is available with Free Access.Please check out our improved journal page which now highlights the latest papers and provides a searchable database of all System Dynamics Review articles.For free access to all System Dynamics Review articles, join today.

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The coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) pandemic: simulation‐based assessment of outbreak responses and postpeak strategies – Struben – – System Dynamics Review – Wiley Online Library