The Damage We’re Not Attending To
Scientists who study complex systems offer solutions to the pandemic.
BY DAVID KRAKAUER & GEOFFREY WESTJULY 8, 2020
World War II bomber planes returned from their missions riddled with bullet holes. The first response was, not surprisingly, to add armor to those areas most heavily damaged. However, the statistician Abraham Wald made what seemed like the counterintuitive recommendation to add armor to those parts with no damage. Wald had uniquely understood that the planes that had been shot where no bullet holes were seen were the planes that never made it back. That’s, of course, where the real problem was. Armor was added to the seemingly undamaged places, and losses decreased dramatically.
continues in source:The Damage We’re Not Attending To – Issue 87: Risk – Nautilus