[Claim to fame: I did first-year economics tutorials with Josh Ryan-Collins. At the time, we were both very frustrated by it and possibly very bad at it. He, unlike me, persisted… (while also rising to prominence in sociology)]
Authored by Lydia Marsden, Josh Ryan-Collins, Jesse Abrams and Timothy Lenton
UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose (IIPP) policy report no. 2024/03
Authors:
Lydia Marsden | Research Fellow in Sustainable Finance | UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose
Josh-Ryan Collins | Associate Professor in Economics and Finance | UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose
Jesse Abrams | Senior Research Impact Fellow | Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter
Timothy Lenton | Chair in Climate Change and Earth System Science | Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter
Summary:
Stable natural ecosystems underpin all economic activity. Ecosystems provide the natural resources needed for production; regulate climate change and global rainfall patters; and provide resilience against natural disasters and the extremes brought on by global warming.
Pressures on nature from human activity – such as land use change and pollution, as well as climate change – are increasing the risk of terrestrial ‘ecosystem tipping points’ (ETPs): non-linear, self-amplifying and irreversible changes in ecosystem states that can occur rapidly and on a large scale.
Losing these critical ecosystems will severely impact the economy through reduced food and energy security; damages to assets such as real estate; croplands and infrastructure; and health risks that impair household productivity. The direct impacts of ETPs can reverberate globally and extend far beyond the regions where these ecosystems are located, not least through the amplifying effect that ETPs would have on climate change.
This means ETPs are highly relevant for central banks and financial supervisors’ understanding of how nature loss can affect the economy and financial system. The scale of environmental breakdown posed by ETPs necessitates a precautionary approach. This must focus on rapidly eliminating negative drivers to prevent thresholds being crossed ex ante, including exploring the role of the financial sector in facilitating these drivers (known as “double materiality”). Improved modelling can and should play a role, but the fundamental uncertainty associated with ETPs means these exercises are more suited for exploring risks rather than managing then.
Ultimately, this approach will need to be led by governments, and requires central banks and financial supervisors to coordinate with policymakers in ministries of finance, industry and environment to fulfil their primary mandates of price and financial stability.
Ecosystem tipping points: Understanding the risks to the economy and the financial systemAuthored by Lydia Marsden, Josh Ryan-Collins, Jesse Abrams and Timothy Lenton25 April 2024Download the reportUCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose (IIPP) policy report no. 2024/03Authors: Lydia Marsden | Research Fellow in Sustainable Finance | UCL Institute for Innovation and Public PurposeJosh-Ryan Collins | Associate Professor in Economics and Finance | UCL Institute for Innovation and Public PurposeJesse Abrams | Senior Research Impact Fellow | Global Systems Institute, University of ExeterTimothy Lenton | Chair in Climate Change and Earth System Science | Global Systems Institute, University of ExeterSummary:Stable natural ecosystems underpin all economic activity. Ecosystems provide the natural resources needed for production; regulate climate change and global rainfall patters; and provide resilience against natural disasters and the extremes brought on by global warming. Pressures on nature from human activity – such as land use change and pollution, as well as climate change – are increasing the risk of terrestrial ‘ecosystem tipping points’ (ETPs): non-linear, self-amplifying and irreversible changes in ecosystem states that can occur rapidly and on a large scale. Losing these critical ecosystems will severely impact the economy through reduced food and energy security; damages to assets such as real estate; croplands and infrastructure; and health risks that impair household productivity. The direct impacts of ETPs can reverberate globally and extend far beyond the regions where these ecosystems are located, not least through the amplifying effect that ETPs would have on climate change. This means ETPs are highly relevant for central banks and financial supervisors’ understanding of how nature loss can affect the economy and financial system. The scale of environmental breakdown posed by ETPs necessitates a precautionary approach. This must focus on rapidly eliminating negative drivers to prevent thresholds being crossed ex ante, including exploring the role of the financial sector in facilitating these drivers (known as “double materiality”). Improved modelling can and should play a role, but the fundamental uncertainty associated with ETPs means these exercises are more suited for exploring risks rather than managing then. Ultimately, this approach will need to be led by governments, and requires central banks and financial supervisors to coordinate with policymakers in ministries of finance, industry and environment to fulfil their primary mandates of price and financial stability.Reference:This report can be referenced as follows:Marsden, L., Ryan-Collins, J., Abrams, J., and Lenton, T. (2024). Ecosystem tipping points: Understanding risks to the economy and financial system. UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose, Policy Report 2024/03. Available at: https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/public-purpose/2024/apr/ecosystem-tipping-points
[There seems to be precious little systems thinking in this, judging from the syllabus – ‘mapping the system’, ‘the iceberg model’, stakeholder interviewing, some visioning… and the old canard of ‘complexity’ and ‘root causes’… I dunno]
A holistic approach to problem solving starts with people
People are at the heart of every complex human system–but they’re often the most overlooked. Effective problem solvers today know how to visualize the larger dynamics of the system while staying grounded in the needs of people. In this course, you’ll learn to combine the analytical tools of systems thinking with the creative mindsets of human-centered design to make sense of complex systems challenges. Explore mapping tools to identify the right places to focus, surface insights about your stakeholders, and pick the most impactful solutions to experiment with so you can go beyond the obvious and design lasting solutions.
REVIEWING REVIEWING | MONDAY, APRIL 29 & 30. Two pop-up sessions in two time zones—hosted by Ryan Murphy—featuring Ray Ison, Peter Jones, Houda Khayame, Wendy Ross, Ruth Schmidt and Katelyn Stenger. Drop in: #1 join link & local time | #2 join link & local timeMORE INFO & PROFILES
TWO MORE MAPPING MONDAYS |RSD12 sessions wrap in May | Thanks to presenters, commenters, and hosts these popular sessions have covered many aspects of systemic design mapping. More info & recordings rsdsymposium.org/rsd12-mapping-mondays | Join links open 30 minutes before the session.
It’s timefor a pivot in how we approach securing improvements in the human condition—HAROLD NELSON
These Systemic Design Master Classes offer a general overview of one thread of inquiry that is used in the development of a supportive foundation for stances and approaches to systemic designing. Familiarity with this thread is intended to be the inception point for future shared exchanges with others who are learning and applying systemic design approaches.
These inquiries are meant to further develop fundamental skills and perspectives acquired—not through argumentation and debate—but rather through conversations and dialogues. These Inquires are guided in part by the values and beliefs made visible in the prospectus for a proposed Systemic Design ‘Flight’ School.
This prospectus is inclusive—not exclusive—of the postulates, assertions, and beliefs underling systemic design. The prospectus is exemplary of the direction of new thinking taken from within a new culture of inquiry—systemic design.
RSD13 contributors: There’s a bit of extra time added to the clock. The submission window for papers will close on Monday, May 6, at 11:59 GMT. Please reach out with any questions about your submission.
RSD13 maps & exhibits: The submission window is open until at least June to allow for term work to be contributed. Please share the call for maps & exhibits with colleagues and students.
The theme for the 60th-anniversary meeting of the American Society for Cybernetics considers language at play in the connections of pasts, presents, and futures. The ASC’s 60th-anniversary meeting will engage in situational enactments of cybernetics at a variety of locations in Washington, DC, ranging from an arts center to the zoo. JUNE 15–19, 2024.
A defining feature of biology is the use of a multiscale architecture, ranging from molecular networks to cells, tissues, organs, whole bodies, and swarms. Crucially however, biology is not only nested structurally, but also functionally: each level is able to solve problems in distinct problem spaces, such as physiological, morphological, and behavioral state space. Percolating adaptive functionality from one level of competent subunits to a higher functional level of organization requires collective dynamics: multiple components must work together to achieve specific outcomes. Here we overview a number of biological examples at different scales which highlight the ability of cellular material to make decisions that implement cooperation toward specific homeodynamic endpoints, and implement collective intelligence by solving problems at the cell, tissue, and whole-organism levels. We explore the hypothesis that collective intelligence is not only the province of groups of animals, and that an important symmetry exists between the behavioral science of swarms and the competencies of cells and other biological systems at different scales. We then briefly outline the implications of this approach, and the possible impact of tools from the field of diverse intelligence for regenerative medicine and synthetic bioengineering.
Systems Thinker | Management Consultant | Educator
April 24, 2024
Systems thinking has seen growing popularity in current times. With world events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Ukraine war, the macro-economic uncertainty in the developed world, and the climate emergency, governments, industries, nonprofits, and education institutions have come to realize that everything is connected to everything else and working in silos can be a recipe for disaster.
This is the Day 1 opening session of Waves Forum for Changemakers 2024 in Helsinki, Finland. In this fireside chat with Nora Bateson, International Bateson Institute, and Dave Snowden, Cynefin Company, hosted by Sara Lindeman, Leapfrog, we explore what changemakers can learn from complexity science to better understand change in complex social systems.
Key takeaways from the afternoon fireside chat about hashtag#complexity by Dave Snowden and Nora Bateson in Helsinki Waves event for change makers. 1️⃣ You can’t change a complex system by changing parts, but you can change interactions. 2️⃣ Do not try to fix a problem, change the ecosystem. 3️⃣ Do not change mindsets, change the context. 4️⃣ There are no linear causalities in complex systems. 5️⃣ Heterogenous systems evolve, homogenous do not. 6️⃣ Learn where you are now (as a system), move to ”adjacent possible”, and evaluate again. 7️⃣ Sustainable change happens at the local level.
A man with a watch knows what time it is. A man with two watches is never sure.[1]
At surface level, the adage emphasizes the consistency that arises when information comes from a single source and points out the potential pitfalls of having too much conflicting information. However, the underlying message is to question the apparent certainty of anyone who only has one source of information. The man with one watch has no way to identify error or uncertainty.
The saying was coined by the San Diego Union on September 20, 1930: “Confusion.—Retail jewelers assert that every man should carry two watches. But a man with one watch knows what time it is, and a man with two watches could never be sure.” Later this was — mistakenly — attributed to Lee Segall of KIXL, then to be misquoted again by Arthur Bloch as “Segal’s Law”.[2]
Segal’s law3 languagesArticleTalkReadEditView historyToolsFrom Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaSegal’s law is an adage that states:A man with a watch knows what time it is. A man with two watches is never sure.[1]At surface level, the adage emphasizes the consistency that arises when information comes from a single source and points out the potential pitfalls of having too much conflicting information. However, the underlying message is to question the apparent certainty of anyone who only has one source of information. The man with one watch has no way to identify error or uncertainty.History[edit]The saying was coined by the San Diego Union on September 20, 1930: “Confusion.—Retail jewelers assert that every man should carry two watches. But a man with one watch knows what time it is, and a man with two watches could never be sure.” Later this was — mistakenly — attributed to Lee Segall of KIXL, then to be misquoted again by Arthur Bloch as “Segal’s Law”.[2]
Georgina Voss’ book Systems Ultra: Making Sense of Technology in a Complex Worldis published by Verso in the UK and the US, in January 2024 https://gsvoss.com/systems-ultra
Georgina Voss will explore what a systems worldview is and how we experience and feel out our way within these structures.
By Centre for the Study of Existential Risk
Date and time
Tuesday, April 23 · 6 – 7:30pm GMT+1
Location
West HubJJ Thomson Avenue Cambridge CB3 0US United KingdomShow map
From finance to supply chains to payment platforms, our lives are increasingly defined by complex technological systems. Yet it can be surprisingly difficult to define what a system actually is, or what it feels like. In this public lecture, Georgina Voss will draw on storytelling and artistic practice to explore what a systems worldview is, what it does, and, crucially, how we experience and feel out our way within these structures.
Professor Emily So will act as discussant for the lecture. The event will be chaired by Dr Maya Indira Ganesh.
Speakers:
Georgina Voss is an artist, writer, and educator, and author of ‘Systems Ultra: Making Sense of Technology in a Complex World’ (Verso 2024). She co-founded and led the creative studios Strange Telemetry, and Supra Systems Studio (University of the Arts London).
Professor Emily So is Professor of Architectural Engineering in the Department of Architecture and Director of the Cambridge University Centre for Risk in the Built Environment (CURBE). Emily is a chartered civil engineer, specialising in urban risk and seismic safety, with notable work in earthquake casualty estimation and interdisciplinary collaborations. She contributed to an award-winning seismic-resilient building design in China (2017) and advises on disaster risk mitigation through SAGE. Recognized with the 2010 Shah Family Innovation Prize, Emily’s expertise spans diverse natural perils and international research initiatives.
Dr Maya Indira Ganesh is an assistant teaching professor at the Institute of Continuing Education (ICE) where she co-directs the , co-directing the MSt in AI Ethics and Society. Her research, rooted in cultural studies and feminist scholarship, explores the societal implications of algorithmic/AI technologies.. At CFI, Maya investigates how technology design intersects with people, places, and organizations, focusing on ethical and responsible AI. She has over a decade of experience as a researcher and activist in gender justice, security, and digital freedom of expression.
Please note there are tickets available for online or in-person.
If you are unable to attend the lecture, please return your ticket before the event through Eventbrite.
The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk is a multidisciplinary research centre within the University of Cambridge dedicated to the study and mitigation of existential risks that could lead to human extinction or civilisational collapse.
REVIEWING REVIEWING | MONDAY, APRIL 29 & 30. Two pop-up sessions in two time zones—hosted by Ryan Murphy—featuring Ray Ison, Peter Jones, Houda Khayame, Wendy Ross, Ruth Schmidt and Katelyn Stenger. Drop in: #1 join link & local time | #2 join link & local timeMORE INFO & PROFILES
It’s timefor a pivot in how we approach securing improvements in the human condition—HAROLD NELSON
Systems Community of Inquiry 
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