Disentangling the evolutionary drivers of social complexity: A comprehensive test of hypotheses | Science Advances

h/t Michael Garfield

PETER TURCHIN HTTPS://ORCID.ORG/0000-0002-1292-8100HARVEY WHITEHOUSE HTTPS://ORCID.ORG/0000-0001-6935-6724 SERGEY GAVRILETSDANIEL HOYER HTTPS://ORCID.ORG/0000-0003-2675-257XPIETER FRANÇOISJAMES S. BENNETT HTTPS://ORCID.ORG/0000-0003-3051-1672KEVIN C. FEENEYPETER PEREGRINE HTTPS://ORCID.ORG/0000-0001-9185-3348GARY FEINMAN HTTPS://ORCID.ORG/0000-0002-4787-2733[…]MAJID BENAM +8 authors Authors Info & Affiliations

SCIENCE ADVANCES

24 Jun 2022

Vol 8, Issue 25

DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abn3517

Abstract

During the Holocene, the scale and complexity of human societies increased markedly. Generations of scholars have proposed different theories explaining this expansion, which range from broadly functionalist explanations, focusing on the provision of public goods, to conflict theories, emphasizing the role of class struggle or warfare. To quantitatively test these theories, we develop a general dynamical model based on the theoretical framework of cultural macroevolution. Using this model and Seshat: Global History Databank, we test 17 potential predictor variables proxying mechanisms suggested by major theories of sociopolitical complexity (and >100,000 combinations of these predictors). The best-supported model indicates a strong causal role played by a combination of increasing agricultural productivity and invention/adoption of military technologies (most notably, iron weapons and cavalry in the first millennium BCE).

Disentangling the evolutionary drivers of social complexity: A comprehensive test of hypotheses

Disentangling the evolutionary drivers of social complexity: A comprehensive test of hypotheses | Science Advances