Continues in source:  Machine Learning’s ‘Amazing’ Ability to Predict Chaos | Quanta Magazine

Scale: The Universal Laws of Growth, Innovation, Sustainability, and the Pace of Life in Organisms, Cities, Economies, and Companies

by Geoffrey West

Penguin, 479 pp., $30.00

Geoffrey West spent most of his life as a research scientist and administrator at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, running programs concerned not with nuclear weapons but with peaceful physics. After retiring from Los Alamos, he became director of the nearby Santa Fe Institute, where he switched from physics to a broader interdisciplinary program known as complexity science. The Santa Fe Institute is leading the world in complexity science, with a mixed group of physicists, biologists, economists, political scientists, computer experts, and mathematicians working together. Their aim is to reach a deep understanding of the complexities of the natural environment and of human society, using the methods of science.

Scale is a progress report, summarizing the insights that West and his colleagues at Santa Fe have achieved. West does remarkably well as a writer, making a complicated world seem simple. He uses pictures and diagrams to explain the facts, with a leisurely text to put the facts into their proper setting, and no equations. There are many digressions, expressing personal opinions and telling stories that give a commonsense meaning to scientific conclusions. The text and the pictures could probably be understood and enjoyed by a bright ten-year-old or by a not-so-bright grandparent.

The title, Scale, needs some clarification. To explain what his book is about, West added the subtitle “The Universal Laws of Growth, Innovation, Sustainability, and the Pace of Life in Organisms, Cities, Economies, and Companies.” The title tells us that the universal laws the book lays down are scaling laws. The word “scale” is a verb meaning “vary together.” Each scaling law says that two measurable quantities vary together in a particular way.

We suppose that the variation of each quantity is expressed as a percentage rate of increase or decrease. The scaling law then says that the percentage rate for quantity A is a fixed number k times the percentage rate for quantity B. The number k is called the power of the scaling law. Since the percentage changes of A and B accumulate with compound interest, the scaling law says that A varies with the kth power of B, where now the word “power” has its usual mathematical meaning. For example, if a body is falling without air resistance, the scaling law between distance fallen and time has k=2. The distance varies with the square of time. You fall 16 feet in one second, 64 feet in two seconds, 144 feet in three seconds, and so on.

Another classic example of a scaling law is the third law of planetary motion, discovered by the astronomer Johannes Kepler in 1618. Kepler found by careful observation that the time it takes for a planet to orbit the sun scales with the three-halves power of the diameter of its orbit. That means that the square of the time is proportional to the cube of the distance. Kepler measured the periods and diameters of the orbits of the six planets known in his time, and found that they followed the scaling law precisely. Fifty-nine years later, Isaac Newton explained Kepler’s laws of planetary motion as consequences of a mathematical theory of universal gravitation. Kepler’s laws gave Newton the essential clues that led to the theoretical understanding of the physical universe.

There is a scaling law in biology as important as Kepler’s third law in astronomy. It ought to have the name of Motoo Kimura attached to it, since he was the first to understand its importance, but instead it is known as the law of genetic drift. Genetic drift is one of the two great driving forces of evolution, the other being natural selection. Darwin is rightly honored for his understanding of natural selection as a main cause of evolution, but he failed to include genetic drift in his picture because he knew nothing about genes.

Continues in source: The Key to Everything | by Freeman Dyson | The New York Review of Books

Thursday, January 18, 2018

The Hidden Rule that Shapes Trees, Lightning, and Cracks in the Earth

Seeing bare tree branches silhouetted against a sunset sky is one of the best things about winter. Bereft of leaves, the trees reveal their intricate skeletons—almost fractal, reminiscent of neurons, or the network of blood vessels that perfuse the body. These complex patterns of growth and branching are produced by an invisible algorithm—less a blueprint than a computer program—encoded in the tree’s DNA, optimized over millions of years of evolution. Taking data on sunlight, airflow, and proximity to other branches, the tree regulates the expression of growth hormones to ensure that it’s making the most of its space. With all the care that goes into their creation, it’s no surprise that the patterns they produce come out so marvelously complex.

What is surprising, and even more marvelous, is when similarly complex patterns emerge almost out of nowhere, in the fractures running through an ice sheet, or glass, or—in the Complex Flow Laboratory at Swansea University—something as seemingly mundane as air in wet sand.

The winding cracks in this image were created naturally by compressed air injected into wet sand, with color denoting when they formed—red is earliest, violet is latest. Image Credit: Campbell, Ozturk, & Sandnes (2017). Physical Review Applied.

How does a system of nothing more than mud and air mirror the fractal beauty of biological life? Dr. Bjornar Sandnes and the students under his direction at Swansea have spent years figuring out how these patterns arise, injecting compressed air into narrow glass cells, tightly packed with sand and saturated with water.

Image Credit: Campbell, Ozturk, & Sandnes (2017). Physical Review Applied.

These cells create a “window” that lets the researchers study how the gas works its way through the mixture—sometimes bubbling, sometimes forming fingerlike projections, or labyrinths of cracks.

This figure, from an earlier work by Sandnes and his collaborators, shows how the gas’ behavior depends on the density of the grains (on the y-axis), and the gas injection rate (on the x-axis). Image Credit: Sandnes, et al. Nature Communications (2011).

“We study these flow patterns because they are important in many natural and industrial systems,” explains Sandnes, “but first and foremost because we are curious to discover how such beautiful structures can grow spontaneously…and what physical mechanisms shape their form and function.”

By measuring and analyzing the properties of these complex flow patterns, Sandnes and his students have developed mathematical tools to describe the interplay among forces that gives rise to these entrancingly organic-looking structures, sharing their findings near the end of last year in the American Physical Society’s journal Physical Review Applied.

A variety of the so-called “invasion patterns” formed by the gas, depending on how fast it gets pumped in to the cell. Image Credit: Campbell, Ozturk, & Sandnes (2017). Physical Review Applied.

“Physically, the spatial density of the patterns are so striking that it begs to be investigated,” says Deren Ozturk, a PhD student in the Complex Flow Lab. “It’s why I joined the team—non-biological natural patterns are particularly fascinating to me.”

For all their complexity, though, the principle that governs the formation of these fractures turns out to be surprisingly simple.

As air is pushed into the system, the sand’s fractures grow in a “stick-slip” fashion, spreading in short bursts interspersed with periods where nothing seems to be happening. During those “stick” periods, though, gas is still being injected, and the air pressure inside the fractures rises. When that pressure becomes great enough, it pushes aside grains of sand, expanding into the space that they had occupied—a “slip”. But the displaced grains, forced out into the surrounding bulk, create a denser region surrounding the newly formed fracture. In that region around the fracture, called a compaction front, the extra-dense packing of the sand makes it harder for the air to create a new inroad.

When the gas manages to spread out, it tends to follow the path of least resistance, pushing aside the least-densely-packed grains to sprout a new branch of the fracture from an existing one. As a result, the compaction fronts around existing fractures create a sort of shield that causes new branches to shy away from them, to spread out into their own space instead. Since following the path of least resistance means giving other fractures a wide berth, the result is a design that naturally strikes a balance between spreading out and filling the space efficiently—a little like the branches of a tree.

If you’re a science enthusiast, you might feel a sense of déjà vu watching the fractures spread through the cell in that video—it looks a lot like a stop-motion version of a Lichtenberg figure being etched into wood, as high-voltage electricity tries to find a path to ground.

Made by applying a conductive solution to the surface of the wood, then applying an extremely high voltage, Lichtenberg figures are as dangerous to create as they are beautiful.

This similarity isn’t a coincidence—the burnt wood in a Lichtenberg figure forms a conductive channel for electrons, allowing them to flow easily into that space the same way that air flows into the fractures. But the high concentration of charge in those established channels pushes away the charges in neighboring ones, causing them to spread out from one another.

The rule also applies in air, as seen in this ultra-slow-motion shot of lightning finding its way to ground.

It’s the same story as the sand’s compaction fronts, only with voltage rather than mechanical pressure. It’s no surprise, then, that voltage in wires is commonly described as being closely analogous to fluid pressure in pipes, in the “hydraulic analogy” of electricity.

Continues in source: Physics Buzz: The Hidden Rule that Shapes Trees, Lightning, and Cracks in the Earth

starting points:

worldwide map of systems thinking learning opportunities
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1KiZfEQGwEaAsOiEBjTdPN9LC5Pk&hl=en_US&ll=47.71313449732236%2C-119.22949348028959&z=4
Please send updates to Nick Ananin at nick.online@foresters.org

Open University system thinking courses – one ‘gold standard’ (I think) and very accessible.

There is a FREE course at http://www.open.edu/openlearn/science-maths-technology/mastering-systems-thinking-practice/content-section-overview?active-tab=description-tab
more free courses at the OU:
http://www.open.edu/openlearn/science-maths-technology/engineering-technology/systems-thinking-free-courses

And the full courses are:
https://www.open.ac.uk/choose/ou/systemsthinking

Others:
https://www.futurelearn.com/courses/systems-thinking-complexity

https://www.edx.org/course/u-lab-leading-emerging-future-mitx-15-671-1x-0

https://www.futurelearn.com/courses/complexity-and-uncertainty

https://www.coursera.org/learn/systems-thinking

https://www.plusacumen.org/courses/systems-practice

https://iversity.org/en/courses/thinking-complexity

https://prepadviser.com/systems-thinking-complexity-mooc/

http://systemslearning.org/on-line-course/

http://complexitylabs.io/course/systems-theory-course/

https://alison.com/course/systems-engineering

not free:
https://www.iseesystems.com/store/training/systems-thinking-concepts/

My last blog explored how earning my BA in Organizational Communication deepened my understanding of systems and described three system thinking approaches. Since earning my BA, and while continuing to use system thinking approaches, I expanded my curiosity and understanding into the world of complexity thinking. One of my mentors, Douglas Drane, has been a key influencer of my expansion in this field. Doug’s life work has been focused on his Complexity Model for business development, which presents an understanding of business as a complex adaptive system. The Model was based on decades of collaboration with brilliant minds across many disciplines to understand how small teams of aligned, high performance individuals can change the workplace for everyone. Doug and I have had countless inspiring conversations of how the world would be a better place if more people were complexity thinkers, which became the spark that brought The HumanCurrent podcast to life.

Three amazing years since starting the complexity podcast, I continue to learn about complexity science and grow as a complexity thinker. My curiosity to further understand and apply complexity thinking at work and in other areas of my life led me back to school, this time to expand my complexity thinking lens as a leader. I experienced metanoia from earning my MA in Leadership from Royal Roads University; it was a transformational experience that shifted my mindset and understanding of the world and the complex adaptive systems that exist in the world.

Douglas Drane, Mentor & Co-founder of the HumanCurrent

As a systems thinker, I don’t ever recall a time that I couldn’t see systems. However, as I was learning about the various complexity terms and aspects, light bulb after light bulb went off, and having the words that explained what I understood gave me more confidence. What I learned from my MA was rich and invaluable, and while it did not result in me being fluent in “complexity speak”, the following are some of the terms that have especially resonated with me and continually show up in my work, life, and all the things I do.

Complicated versus complex. This was one of my first ah-has—a big light bulb. Understanding that a process or situation in a complicated system has a solution, even if it is confusing and involves many steps, is different than a complex system. Take an organizational chart for example. The flow of who reports to who can seem confusing, but one way or another it can be mapped out. However, taking the same organizational chart and adding the personalities, relationships, and history to those on the chart reveals a complex situation. I like to think of it as complicated situations can be solved or figured out; whereas, complex situations are something you navigate through. The “complex” part of a system implies there are layers of interconnectedness and interdependencies. Navigating through complexity requires a greater level of understanding, flexibility, and curiosity.

I’ll also note that there are complexity scientists who are working on new mathematical models to work through today’s complexity. You can learn more and hear about some examples through our interviews with people like Yaneer Bar-Yam, Jean Boulton, and Melanie Mitchell.

Complex ADAPTIVE systems. I had just grasped the understanding between complicated and complex systems when another light bulb moment happened with adding “adaptive” to the system. This was big for me. I had this epiphany that by understanding what complex adaptive system meant I was understanding the foundation of ‘complexity speak’. YAY me! All of a sudden, everywhere I looked I could see complex adaptive systems—systems that were always there, but it was like I saw them with a new lens. For example, the ecosystem, politics, global economics and socioeconomics, families and communities, and so forth. By adding “adaptive” to complex systems, it implies that systems are dynamic, that there is constant change, evolution and movement within the system.

“Often used in ‘adaptive systems’, the term ‘adaptive’ refers to interacting entities that individually or together are able to respond to environmental changes or changes between the interacting parts. The term can refer to a temporary modification to meet a changing context, or a long-term, permanent modification.”

Emergence. The New England Complex Systems Institute stated that “emergence refers to the existence or formation of collective behaviors — what parts of a system do together that they would not do alone.” While earning my MA, emergence was a key theme as I coded data for my thesis. Here at the HumanCurrent, my co-host and I have trusted and embraced emergence to guide our work forward. We continue to be in awe when the perfect guest presents him/herself at the perfect time. On the podcast we have talked about how we trust the process, which we believe allows for emergence or for us to recognize and appreciate emergence. I would even go as far to say that the HumanCurrent is successful because of our philosophy and value of emergence.

“Emergence describes a process whereby component parts interact to form synergies, these synergies then add value to the combined organization which gives rise to the emergence of a new macro-level of organization that is a product of the synergies between the parts and not simply the properties of the parts themselves. ”

Feedback loops. While earning my MA I read countless articles and books, many of which I still refer to regularly. Peter Senge’s The Fifth Discipline is one of the books at the top of my list, especially when I think of systems thinking, personal mastery, and feedback loops. In my attempt to synthesize Senge’s definition of feedback loops, I’d say that feedback is a reciprocating flow of influence, which is both cause and effect. Of course for a more in depth description, I would strongly recommend grabbing a copy of Senge’s book.

A significant ah-ha from my studies and Senge’s book was that feedback loops can be reinforcing and balancing (negative and positive), which are influenced by patterns and behaviors. I especially recommend Senge’s book if you’re interested in learning more about how feedback loops affect behaviors within a system and how those behaviors can influence a system’s behaviors.

“Human beings, viewed as behaving systems, are quite simple. The apparent complexity of our behavior over time is largely a reflection of the complexity of the environment in which we find ourselves. ”

Interdependencies. As a lifelong systems thinker and growing complexity thinker, seeing and understanding interdependencies came fairly easy. However, a big ah-ha for me with understanding interdependencies was not in knowing the definition, but rather in appreciating what my understanding had to offer to a situation. I’ll explain. I had this impression that seeing and understanding interdependencies would make navigating through a situation or relationship easier. Boy was I wrong. You know that saying, “ignorance is bliss”? I think that in many cases, before I had an understanding of interdependencies, my ignorance made things easier to an extent. I could just “keep it real”, do what I thought was best, and say what I wanted to say. With that mindset came all kinds of unintended consequences (and a great example of a feedback loop).

Because interdependencies exist within complex adaptive systems, there is no ‘easy button’. In fact, it’s not about finding a solution; it is about navigating through a situation. While having an understanding of interdependencies doesn’t provide a magic formula or easy button, it does provide a deeper level of understanding and appreciation to navigate through situations in a meaningful way. This requires a mind shift and, I believe, leads to a heightened level of mindfulness where we appreciate the collective whole, not just the parts.

“The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.”

These five lessons —complicated versus complex, complex adaptive systems, emergence, feedback loops, and interdependencies— have fundamentally fostered my complexity thinking. As a result, I believe I am a better co-host, employee, friend, and human. Another ah-ha just happened. Doug was right, the more complexity thinkers there are, the better the world will be. Thank you, Doug!

You can listen to the HumanCurrent podcast here and don’t forget to subscribe in iTunes. Be sure to listen to our recent episode where we share our interview with Data Scientist & Professor at NECSI, Alfredo Morales. 

Source: Five Lessons on Complex Adaptive Systems — HumanCurrent

Source: Improvisation Blog: Transactions and Transduction modelling in the Redesign of Institutions

What is STREAMS?

STREAMS is an acronym that stands for:

 Systems Thinking, Real Enterprise Architecture and Management Science.

It is a set of ideas about how to build and manage an Enterprise based on a common, rigorous STREAMS Philosophy. It leads to methodologies, methods and techniques for building, managing, evolving and innovating Enterprises that can be applied in practice but, like an Engineering approach, its methods are grounded in rigorous research and understanding.

Common to the three main strands, or tributaries, of STREAMS is the Use of Models: conceptual models of a variety of descriptions and characteristics ranging from highly complex mathematical models informed by volumes of quantitative data grounded in empirical observation and measurement to simple qualitative models expressing some simple truth. The purpose of the models is to guide Decision Making.

STREAMS is a set of ideas that are both transdisciplinary and integrative of theory and practice. It is “Trans-disciplinary” in the sense that it eclectically draws on ideas, theories, principles and methods from a range of academic disciplines – deliberately paying no heed to the traditional divisions in universities – or similar academic institutions. It is “Integrative” in the sense that is seeks to blend these ideas into a coherent, well-founded theoretical framework – but also incorporate emrpically grounded and proven ideas and practices from Practice, not just academic theory. STREAMS is not intended to be an academic exercise in the social science but theoretically-sound ideas and methods for practitioners in engineering enterprises.

much much more in source: STREAMS – STREAMS Wiki

Sarah Firth

Continues in source: Making Sense Of Complexity – Extra Newsfeed

Source: FORMWELTen-Institute for renewing systemic research | Larnaca Conferences

How To Be a Systems Thinker

A Conversation With Mary Catherine Bateson [4.13.18]

Until fairly recently, artificial intelligence didn’t learn. To create a machine that learns to think more efficiently was a big challenge. In the same sense, one of the things that I wonder about is how we’ll be able to teach a machine to know what it doesn’t know that it might need to know in order to address a particular issue productively and insightfully. This is a huge problem for human beings. It takes a while for us to learn to solve problems, and then it takes even longer for us to realize what we don’t know that we would need to know to solve a particular problem. 

How do you deal with ignorance? I don’t mean how do you shut ignorance out. Rather, how do you deal with an awareness of what you don’t know, and you don’t know how to know, in dealing with a particular problem? When Gregory Bateson was arguing about human purposes, that was where he got involved in environmentalism. We were doing all sorts of things to the planet we live on without even asking what the side effects would be and the interactions, although, at that point we were thinking more about side effects than about interactions between multiple processes. Once you begin to understand the nature of side effects, you ask a different set of questions before you make decisions and projections and analyze what’s going to happen.

MARY CATHERINE BATESON is a writer and cultural anthropologist. In 2004 she retired from her position as Clarence J. Robinson Professor in Anthropology and English at George Mason University, and is now Professor Emerita. Mary Catherine Bateson’s Edge Bio

…continues in source, and concludes rather wonderfully with:

Source: How To Be a Systems Thinker | Edge.org

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Source: Top Inspiration, Events and News on Systems Change 

continued in source: The Thoughts of a Spiderweb | Quanta Magazine

Full details in source: Three Keys to Unlocking Systems-Level Change

NOV 02

Redesigning Freedom : Metaphorum 2018

by Mark Lambertz

£99 – £149

Event Information

An experimental, self-organising conference, exploring liberating new forms of social organisation.

While there are many innovative proposals on new forms of organisation that could potentially support a great societal transformation, few of us have had the opportunity of experiencing and replicating the experience. In this conference we will explore again Stafford Beer’s cybernetic theories to “design freedom” in organisations, communities, regions and nations. We are inviting examples of radical and innovative organisational and societal transformation based on non-hierarchical, adaptive, self organising structures.

Programme

Day 1, Friday 02.11.2018

4:00 p.m. Pre-Opening & Reception at the Co-Working location super7000 “A Cybernetic Impromptu Networking Session, Drinks & Snacks”

End. 8 p.m.

Day 2, Saturday 03.11.

@sipgate

8.30 a.m Check-in & Open Doors and a Breakfast Buffet

9:30 a.m. Start, welcome, guided tour through sipgate – and how they redesigned their freedom.

10:15 First curated impulse / “Day Starter” incl. Q&A (no ranks, no titles, no Keynote Speakers), tbd.

11:00 Barcamp – Explanation of the Rules of the Game, Session Planning for the whole day, per Slot 45 minutes in max. 4 rooms/areas (more infos about the nature and purpose of a Barcamp: http://barcamp.org/w/page/405173/TheRulesOfBarCamp)

11:30 Start of the first round of parallel sessions

12:15 Lunch break for one hour

1:15 p.m. Barcamp Sessions – Continue Parallel Sessions 2, 3

2:45 p.m. Coffee Break, 15 Minutes

3:00 p.m. Barcamp Sessions – Continue Parallel Sessions 4, 5

4:30 p.m. Coffee Break, 15 Minutes

5:15 p.m 124ALL – “What should be the guiding question for tomorrow?” & “9x Why?”

5:45 p.m End of the sessions

6:00 p.m. Second curated impulse, perhaps a”cybernetic nano concert” incl. Q&A ->

6:30 p.m Start of the Get together, finger food, drinks, music & communication

Closing around 22.00/23.00 o’clock

Day 3, Sunday 04.11.

09:00 Breakfast

09:30 Start, short welcome

09:35 Taste of Team Syntegrity: A hacked version of the original Syntegration protocol, with all the participants of the Metaphorum

12:30 Lunch Break

1:30 p.m Planning Session for the next metaphorum (format and interaction structure tbd).

From 2:30 p.m. Closing, Farewell & Official End

KPIs Measurement via lines/strokes on a flipchart (scale from 1 to 5):

Time well invested?

Gained an understanding on how to redesign freedom?

The Barcamp & Syntegration were engaging?

3:30 p.m. Leaving time

Price

Included in the price of £149.-

(Early Bird £99.-, if you buy a ticket before 31.07.2018):

Conference Fee, Breakfast, Lunch and a lot of exchange.

Travel

Düsseldorf (DUS) has an international airport with many direct connections within Europe and also some flights from overseas.

Airport Info:

https://www.dus.com/en

From the airport we recommend the following connections to the city (the ride takes about 15-20 minutes):

Bus 721 (Terminal A/B/C), Single Ticket EUR 2,70

Official website of the Rheinbahn (public transportation service):

http://www.rheinbahn.com/Seiten/default.aspx

Taxi, one ride about EUR 20.-

You will find the cabs right in front of the entrance (just follow the signs in the airport)

Accommodation

The following hotels and hostels are close to the main venue (Saturday and Sunday):

Holiday Inn Düsseldorf Hafen

Radisson Blue

This hostel is cheap, even though it takes 15 minutes with the bus to get to sipgate and 25

Minutes by feet.

http://www.backpackers-duesseldorf.de/en/

Source: Redesigning Freedom : Metaphorum 2018 Tickets, Fri, Nov 2, 2018 at 4:00 PM | Eventbrite

Source: Pervasives and the VSM algedonic link – Tom Graves / Tetradian