Source: Advancing my systems change typology: considering scaling out, up and deep | Marcus Jenal

Nice blog which introduces, summarises, and discusses some key system-related topics, e.g.:

(title is in url)

https://paulcairney.wordpress.com/2019/02/03/policy-concepts-in-1000-words-its-time-for-some-game-theory/

https://paulcairney.wordpress.com/2019/02/03/policy-concepts-in-1000-words-the-institutional-analysis-and-development-framework-iad-and-governing-the-commons/

https://paulcairney.wordpress.com/2019/02/03/policy-in-500-words-the-social-ecological-systems-framework/

https://paulcairney.wordpress.com/2019/02/03/policy-in-500-words-ecology-of-games/

Thanks to Howard Silverman for flagging Professor Archer as a notable systems thinker!

Source: Margaret Archer – Wikipedia

Margaret Archer

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Margaret Scotford Archer (born 20 January 1943) spent most of her academic career at the University of Warwick, UK, where she was for many years Professor of Sociology. She was also a professor at l’Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland. She is best known for coining the term elisionism in her 1995 book Realist Social Theory: The Morphogenetic Approach. In April 2014, Professor Archer was named by Pope Francis to succeed former Harvard law professor and U.S. Ambassador to the Holy See Mary Ann Glendon as President of the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences.^[1]

She studied at the University of London, graduating B.Sc. in 1964 and Ph.D. in 1967 with a thesis on The Educational Aspirations of English Working Class Parents. She was a lecturer at the University of Reading from 1966 to 1973.

She is one of the most influential theorists in the critical realist tradition. At the 12th World Congress of Sociology, she was elected as the first woman President of the International Sociological Association, is a founder member of both the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences and the Academy of Learned Societies in the Social Sciences. She is a Trustee of the Centre for Critical Realism.

She has supervised some Ph.D students, some of whom have gone on to contribute towards the substantive development of critical realism in the social sciences, including Robert Archer, author of Education Policy and Realist Social Theory^[2], Sean Creaven, author of Marxism and Realism^[3], and Justin Cruickshank, author of Realism and Sociology^[4].

Contents

• 1Analytical dualism
• 2Controversy
• 3Bibliography
• 4References
• 5External links

Analytical dualism[edit source]

This Section: analytical dualism provides insufficient context for those unfamiliar with the subject.Please help improve the article with a good introductory style. (June 2017) (Learn how and when to remove this template message)

Margaret Archer argues that much social theory suffers from the generic defect of conflation where, due to a reluctance or inability to theorize emergent relationships between social phenomena, causal autonomy is denied to one side of the relation. This can take the form of autonomy being denied to agency with causal efficacy only granted to structure (downwards conflation). Alternatively it can take the form of autonomy being denied to structure with causal efficacy only granted to agency (upwards conflation). Finally it may take the form of central conflation where structure and agency are seen as being co-constitutive i.e. structure is reproduced through agency which is simultaneously constrained and enabled by structure. The most prominent example of central conflation is the structuration theory of Anthony Giddens. While not objecting to this approach on philosophical grounds, Archer does object to it on analytical grounds: by conflating structure and agency into unspecified movements of co-constitution, central conflationary approaches preclude the possibility of sociological exploration of the relative influence of each aspect.

In contradistinction Archer offers the approach of analytical dualism.^[5] While recognizing the interdependence of structure and agency (i.e. without people there would be no structures) she argues that they operate on different timescales. At any particular moment, antecedently existing structures constrain and enable agents, whose interactions produce intended and unintended consequences, which leads to structural elaboration and the reproduction or transformation of the initial structure. The resulting structure then provides a similar context of action for future agents. Likewise the initial antecedently existing structure was itself the outcome of structural elaboration resulting from the action of prior agents. So while structure and agency are interdependent, Archer argues that it is possible to unpick them analytically. By isolating structural and/or cultural factors which provide a context of action for agents, it is possible to investigate how those factors shape the subsequent interactions of agents and how those interactions in turn reproduce or transform the initial context. Archer calls this a morphogenetic sequence. Social processes are constituted through an endless array of such sequences but, as a consequence of their temporal ordering, it is possible to disengage any such sequence in order to investigate its internal causal dynamics. Through doing so, argues Archer, it’s possible to give empirical accounts of how structural and agential phenomena interlink over time rather than merely stating their theoretical interdependence.

Source: Cellular automaton – Wikipedia

Source: Welcome to CECAN | CECAN

The Centre for the Evaluation of Complexity Across the Nexus (CECAN), a £3m research centre hosted by the University of Surrey, is transforming the practice of policy evaluation in Nexus areas, to make it fit for a complex world.

CECAN is pioneering, testing and promoting innovative policy evaluation approaches and methods across Nexus domains such as food, energy, water and the environment, through a series of ‘real-life’ case study projects with co-funders (ESRC, NERC, DEFRA, BEIS, FSA and EA).

CECAN has been delivering a programme of evaluation methods workshops, training courses in evaluation tools and specialist seminars delivered by international experts, to encourage knowledge sharing and capacity building amongst those working in UK policy making.

Resources – https://www.cecan.ac.uk/resources?fbclid=IwAR053DvRhdfKIXMww1I_H6i4Eo4R8qAeGTo7qvcV0AfuPavFZP9gJNgdniE

CECAN is producing a variety of resources available for download from this page. They are all available under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 licence.

CECAN’s Updated Manifesto, April 2018 Version 2.0

• Policy Evaluation for a Complex World 

CECAN Syllabus

• Evaluation of Complex Policy and Programmes: A CECAN module for future policy analysts and evaluators – Dr Corinna Elsenbroich, Prof. Nigel Gilbert, Dr Dione Hills, Dr Emma Uprichard

CECAN Managing Conflicts of Interest

• Identifying and managing conflicts of interest in the work of CECAN

CECAN Toolkits

• Dr Barbara Befani’s Bayes Formula Confidence Updater Spreadsheet

CECAN EPPNs

CECAN has launched a Policy and Practice Note Series, with e-versions available to download.

• 1. Qualitative Comparative Analysis: A Pragmatic Method for Evaluating Intervention – Professor David Byrne, Durham University (Lead)
• 2. Agent Based Modelling for Evaluation – Helen Wilkinson, Risk Solutions (Lead)
• 3. Dependency Models – Dr Emma Uprichard, Warwick University (Lead)
• 4. Testing Contribution Claims with Bayesian Updating – Dr Barbara Befani, University of Surrey (Lead)
• 5. Learning Lessons for Evaluating Complexity Across the Nexus – Dr Clare Twigger-Ross, Bill Sheate – Collingwood Environmental Planning (Lead)
• 6. Dynamic Pattern Synthesis – Professor Phil Haynes, University of Brighton (Lead)
• 7. Revaluation: A Participative Approach to Measuring and Making Change – Andrew Darnton, AD Research & Analysis (Lead)
• 8. Maximising Impact from Evaluations in Complex Policy Areas – Dr Karen Scott, University of Exeter (Lead)
• 9. Managing Deep Uncertainty: Exploratory Modelling, Adaptive Plans and Decision Support – Dr Jan Kwakkel, Delft University of Technology
• 10. Evaluating complex policy for rural development at a time of dynamic change – Frances Rowe, Newcastle University (Lead)
• 11. Evaluating Complexity in Context using Qualitative Comparative Analysis: The Environment Agency and Waste Crime – Amy Proctor, Newcastle University (Lead)
• 12. Negotiating Complexity in Evaluation Planning: A Participatory Systems Map of the Energy Trilemma – Dr Pete Barbrook-Johnson, University of Surrey

CECAN Project Reports

• Learning Lessons for Evaluating Complexity at the Nexus – A meta-evaluation of CEP projects (Collingwood Environmental Planning)
• CECAN and NEKS held a workshop with senior infrastructure experts and academics to explore the issues around the relationships between public infrastructure and private finance over the life of infrastructure projects. Here is a link to the report from this workshop.
• Richard Gunton, CECAN Fellow, gave a talk at the ‘Valuing Nature’ event in Edinburgh. The slides from his presentation are available to download here.
• Sara Giorgi, CECAN Fellow, has completed her project “How to Improve the Evaluation of Complex Systems to Better Inform Policymaking: Learning From Evaluating DEFRA’s Reward and Recognition Fund. Sara’s final report is available to download here.
• To access the Summary Report following the CECAN International Symposium held in November 2017, please click here. Furthermore, links to the presentations that were given at the Symposium are available to download here.
• Joanna Boehnert, CECAN Fellow, has completed her project and her final poster depicting the visualisation of complexity, can be downloaded here.
• A participatory systems map of the Energy Trilemma – A CECAN report for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy by Pete Barbrook-Johnson and Alex Penn. To download a high resolution version of the map, please click here.

CECAN Annual Conference 2018 – Policy Evaluation for a Complex World

Presentations:

• 1.1 Evaluation of Complex Policy and Programmes: A CECAN Module for Future Policy Analysts and Evaluators.
• 1.2 Developing Guidance for Government on Dealing with Complexity in Evaluation– an Annex to the Magenta Book?
• 1.3 Making Evaluation Real: Qualitative Comparative Analysis and environmental policy (Case based methods Part 1):
• A: Dave Byrne QCA as a Method for Dealing with Complexity
• B:Clare Twigger Ross Investigating the Value of Qualitative Comparatative Analysis in Relation to the DEFRA FRCP Evaluation
• C: Amy Proctor, QCA and the Environment Agency’s Evaluation of Waste Crime.
• 1.4 Participatory Systems Mapping: Exploring and Negotiating Complexity in Evaluation with BEIS and DEFRA
• 2.1 Where do I start in Navigating Complex Evaluation Methods? Developing and using the Choosing Appropriate Evaluation Methods tool
• 2.2 Two New Advances in Finding Dynamic Patterns in Complex Systems (Case based methods – Part 2):
• A: Phil Haynes Dynamic Pattern Synthesis
• B: Brian Castellani Case Based Methods and Agent Based Modelling
• 2.3 Complexity, Policy and Evaluation in Practice: Improving Theories of Change to Address Complexity
• 2.4 Getting value, values and valuation into evaluation:
• A: Richard Gunton, Adam Hejnowicz, The Pluralistic Evaluation Framework for Policy Impact Assessment, Appraisal & Evaluation
• B: Nick Kirsop Taylor, The Criticality of Culture in Delivering and Evaluating Public Institutional Approaches
• C: Andrew Darnton, The Difference Between Values and Value

Posters:

• Anna Kaxira – Complex Policy Interlinkages Between Anaerobic Digestion and Food Waste in the UK
• Betheney Wills – Case Study of the Marine Pioneer
• Brian Castellani – Case Based Methods and Agent Based Modelling
• Nick Kirsop-Taylor – The Criticality of Culture in Delivering and Evaluating Public Institutional Approaches to Managing Complexity Across the Nexus: The Case of Natural Resources Wales
• Richard Gunton – The Pluralistic Evaluation Framework
• Thomas Dixon – Democratising Complex Evaluation
• Henry Leveson-Gower – Trust in Water
• Joanna Boehnert – The Visual Representation of Complexity

CECAN E-Newsletter Archive

• December 2018 – CECAN Newsletter
• September 2018 – CECAN Newsletter
• June 2018 – CECAN Newsletter
• March 2018 – CECAN Newsletter
• December 2017 – CECAN Newsletter
• November 2017 – CECAN Newsletter
• August 2017 – CECAN Newsletter
• May 2017 – CECAN Newsletter
• February 2017 – CECAN Newsletter
• November 2016 – CECAN Newsletter
• June 2016 – CECAN Newsletter
• CECAN’s Data Privacy Notice 2018

Other Resources

• Fuzzy Cognitive Maps: A Participatory Workshop Tool

About Us

The Center for Complex Network Research (CCNR), directed by Professor Albert-László Barabási, has a simple objective: think networks. The center’s research focuses on how networks emerge, what they look like, and how they evolve; and how networks impact on understanding of complex systems.

To understand networks, CCNR’s research has developed to rather unexpected areas. Certain studies include the topology of the www – showing that webpages are on average 19 clicks form each other; complex cellular network inside the cell-looking at both metabolic and genetic networks; the Internet’s Achilles’ Heel. The center’s researchers have even ventured to study how actors are connected in Hollywood.

Source: Barabási Lab

General Morphological Analysis

A general method for non-quantified modeling

© Swedish Morphological Society, 2002 (Revised 2013)
Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution.

Article presenting Fritz Zwicky’s General Morphological Analysis as a method for non-quantified modeling, scenario development and strategy analysis.

Source: General Morphological Analysis

Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morphological_analysis_(problem-solving)

Morphological Analysis by Fritz Zwicky

https://www.toolshero.com/creativity/morphological-analysis-fritz-zwicky/

Click to access HIM_01.pdf

Another free whole book

Source: “RECURSIVE FRAME ANALYSIS: A Qualitative Research Method for Mapping Ch” by Hillary Keeney, Bradford Keeney et al.

full, free textbook!

Source: Introduction to the Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems – Open SUNY Textbooks

Introduction to the Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems

  License: Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike CC BY-NC-SA

Author(s): Hiroki Sayama

Keep up to date on Introduction to Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systemsat http://bingweb.binghamton.edu/~sayama/textbook/!

Introduction to the Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems introduces students to mathematical/computational modeling and analysis developed in the emerging interdisciplinary field of Complex Systems Science. Complex systems are systems made of a large number of microscopic components interacting with each other in nontrivial ways. Many real-world systems can be understood as complex systems, where critically important information resides in the relationships between the parts and not necessarily within the parts themselves. This textbook offers an accessible yet technically-oriented introduction to the modeling and analysis of complex systems. The topics covered include: fundamentals of modeling, basics of dynamical systems, discrete-time models, continuous-time models, bifurcations, chaos, cellular automata, continuous field models, static networks, dynamic networks, and agent-based models. Most of these topics are discussed in two chapters, one focusing on computational modeling and the other on mathematical analysis. This unique approach provides a comprehensive view of related concepts and techniques, and allows readers and instructors to flexibly choose relevant materials based on their objectives and needs. Python sample codes are provided for each modeling example.

This textbook is available for purchase in both grayscale and color via Amazon.com and CreateSpace.com.

REVIEWS:

Hiroki Sayama’s book “Introduction to the Modeling and Simulation of Complex Systems” is … a unique and welcome addition to any instructor’s collection. What makes it valuable is that it not only presents a state-of-the-art review of the domain but also serves as a gentle guide to learning the sophisticated art of modeling complex systems. –Muaz A. Niazi, Complex Adaptive Systems Modeling 2016 4:3

… Sayamaʼs book is a very good instrument for students who want to read an introductory text on modeling and analysis of complex systems, and for instructors who need such a text in simple language for their complex systems courses and projects. The book offers a good introduction to the complex systems terminology and plenty of readily available examples with technical implementation details. … Overall, Introduction to the Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems offers a novel pedagogical approach to the teaching of complex systems, based on examples and library code that engage students in a tutorial-style learning adventure. It is a solid tool that may become one of the primary instruments for teaching complex systems science and help the discipline to become more established in the academic world, triggering the necessary transition from a top-down tradition to a bottom-up complex systems approach.
-Stefano Nichele, Artificial Life 22(3): 424-427, 2016. www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/ARTL_r_00209

I’m a non-exec Director of www.scio.org.uk – systems and complexity in organisation – and we run four open days a year, with four systems-related speakers at each one.

We would love to have more speakers (and attendees) related to systems change, regenerative agriculture, sustainability, philanthropy, international development etc. We’d also love to have more contributors from sectors we hear less from – health, education at all levels, social care, arts, charities

Can you recommend any speakers – would you be interested to speak? Reply here or drop me a line at ben.taylor@scio.org.uk

Cheers!
Benjamin