Development Trajectories, Complexity Thinking and Theories of Change

Evaluation Uncertainty

Aaron E. Zazueta a@zazuetagroup.com;
Nima Bahramalian N.Bahramalian@unido.org;
Thuy Thu Le t.le@unido.org

This article builds on a previous contribution to this blog identifying a set of complex adaptive systems that are particularly useful in the formulation of theories of change (TOCs), find the link to the blog here. These include the concepts of the Social-Ecological Systems, boundaries, domains, scales, agents, adaptive behavior, and emergence and system development trajectory in the formulation of theories of change. This article briefly explains how to use these concepts and presents some aspects of an the article Development trajectories and complex systems-informed theories of change which was published in September 2020 in the American Journal of evaluation (Zazueta et al., 2020). A non-edited version of the article is available here. The article illustrates the use of the approach in  the evaluation of the UNIDO /SECO project SMART- Fish in Indonesia (UNIDO, 2019)…

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