• https://www.nature.com/articles/nature08227
• 03 September 2009

Early-warning signals for critical transitions

• Marten Scheffer, 
• Jordi Bascompte, 
• William A. Brock, 
• Victor Brovkin, 
• Stephen R. Carpenter, 
• Vasilis Dakos, 
• Hermann Held, 
• Egbert H. van Nes, 
• Max Rietkerk & 
• George Sugihara 

Nature volume 461, pages53–59 (2009)

Abstract

Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching.