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Ergodicity: Definition, Examples, And Implications, As Simple As Possible

Ergodicity: Definition, Examples, And Implications, As Simple As Possible

By  Luca Dellanna

Some reviews of Luca’s previous books

“This book is like a magnificent suspension bridge, linking the science of the human brain to the practical craft of applying it in everyday life. I loved it.” – Rory Sutherland, Ogilvy’s Vice Chairman

“So insightful with common sense applications of Complexity and the ability to communicate clearly!!” – Bob Klapetzky.

“A SUPERB book […] by one of the profound thinkers in our field [behavioral economics].” – Michal G. Bartlett

What’s ergodicity, and why it matters?

“The Most Important Property to Understand in Probability, in Life, in Anything.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb on ergodicity.

“I think the most under-rated idea is ergodicity.” – David Perell, author.

Is ergodicity the most important concept in decision-making and behavioral sciences? (Yes.)

Is it relevant for you in your daily life? (Yes.)

Is it possible to explain it so simply that a grandma or a high-schooler can understand it? (Yes.)

Even if they know nothing about maths? (Yes.)

That’s because ergodicity is an important idea with so many practical applications. Sadly, most books describe it in a very technical way, making it inaccessible to most people.
In this short book, 6-times author Luca Dellanna describes ergodicity as simply as possible. You will read stories about how not knowing about it destroyed his cousin’s career as a skier, or how misunderstanding it caused additional deaths during the pandemic. You will learn how to spot situations in which ergodicity matters and the three strategies to react appropriately.

This book is shorter than other books by the same author (about 80 pages of content, hence the reduced price).

This page sells the eBook / Kindle version. Around mid-November, the paperback version will become available on Amazon and in selected stores (e.g., most Barnes & Noble).

There will be no discount after launch, and the paperback version will be more expensive than the digital one.

Who is this book for?

This book is for readers interested in growing themselves, their career, or their business, and who want to learn about ergodicity and its practical applications without having to understand its mathematical foundation. No mathematical knowledge is required, only a high-school level understanding of English.

Readers who want to master the theory and mathematical foundation of ergodicity are better off reading a more formal manuscript. This book is not a substitute for it, but a complement.

About the author

Luca Dellanna is the author of 6 books. He is a researcher in complexity science and emergent behaviors, and an operational excellence consultant. He spoke at Nudgestock and regularly teaches risk management in masters.

His personal website is Luca-Dellanna.com and his Twitter is @DellAnnaLuca.

What you will get

By purchasing this book, you will receive all of the following:

• PDF version
• .ePub version (compatible with Apple Books & other eBook readers)
• .mobi version (Kindle)

This is a pre-order

I am currently finishing the manuscript. It will go on sale to the larger public on the 8th of November 2020. By placing a pre-order, you will receive the book before everyone else, one week before public availability.

You can trust me. Most of my other books have been released with a pre-order on this website. They all have a 5-star average rating – you can check yourself on gumroad.com/dellannaluca.

On the 1st of November, you will receive an email with a PDF version of the book, a Kindle file (.mobi), and a file for most other eBook readers (.ePub).

Moreover, you will get added to my mailing list, where I frequently publish essays that do not make it into books.

The Roam version

I will also publish a version of this book as a private Roam Research database.

Roam is a website that shows content in an interconnected way, a bit like Wikipedia. Reading the book this way will allow you to go back and forth content at your pace and following your interests.

Important: reading the Roam version requires a pre-existing Roam subscription, which is not included in this bundle.

If you purchase the Roam version, you will receive the eBook in 3 formats (PDF, Kindle, and ePub) on the 1st of November 2020 and the Roam version (both an editable .json export of the book and a shared uneditable private graph) on the 15th of November 2020.

Patron’s support

Readers purchasing the Ebook + Patreon’s support package will get their name in the ebook acknowledgements as a supporter (and the many thanks of the author).

If your name is not clear from your Gumroad account, I will send you an email to ask you for it.

Some more reviews of Luca’s books

“Luca’s book was so helpful to my work. Opened my eyes up to some more reasons why change is so hard.” – Chris Murman

“A thoughtfully written book in very straightforward language.” – A.L. Peevey

You can find more reviews on the pages of my other books, such as this one.

Ergodicity: Definition, Examples, And Implications, As Simple As Possible

Ergodicity: Definition, Examples, And Implications, As Simple As Possible

source (intriguing but sadly paywalled)

Inter-work and Ethical Vigilance – Research – Royal Holloway, University of London

Home > School of Business and Management home > Research > Profile > Publications > Inter-work and Ethical Vigilance

Inter-work and Ethical Vigilance : Two Scenarios for the (Post-)Pandemic Future of Systems Thinking. / Córdoba-Pachón, José-Rodrigo .In: Systems, Vol. 8, No. 4, 36, 04.10.2020.

• Final Manuscript Final published version, 492 KB, PDF documentLicence: CC BY Show licence

• José-Rodrigo Córdoba-Pachón
• Abstract

For several decades, systems thinking has been a defined body of knowledge that has contributed to many areas of science. Its value has, critically, resided in (meta- or post-) paradigmatic and participative use of one or several systems approaches to help stakeholders’ structure and tackle complex problems. With renewed and (post-)pandemic interest in interdisciplinary work, this paper argues that to continue securing a future, system thinking requires a wider understanding of the dynamics and intertwining of knowledge unfolding and ethics in society. Two different but overlapping scenarios for systems thinking are proposed: (a) One based on inter-(disciplinary, para/professional, group) work and (b) another based on ethical vigilance. The first one is not so different from what has been envisaged for systems thinking in the last few years. Nevertheless, and following the ideas of the sociologist Andrew Abbott, this scenario proposes the explicit inclusion of the goal of knowledge rediscovery to promote a sense of solidarity, mutual understanding and compassion. For the second scenario, Michel Foucault’s notion of governmentality is used to problematize pandemic events and practices, and to offer possibilities for individual critical thinking and action, also leading us to consider the importance of (self-other) compassion. Features, implications, questions and examples of use are provided for each scenario.

source (paywalled)

Inter-work and Ethical Vigilance – Research – Royal Holloway, University of London

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Spaces limited – RSVP for the Fish Banks Seminar

Limited Spaces Remain – Play the Classic Fish Banks Simulation Thursday, October 29th, 2020 | 10am – 1pm EDT

Spaces limited – RSVP for the Fish Banks Seminar

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Welcome to Metabridge Ltd

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Welcome to Metabridge Ltd

Cynefin as applied to paddlesports clubs, developed by British Canoeing Yorkshire and Humberside. Very nice.

LIVING WITH UNCERTAINTY Sense-making for Paddlesport Clubs

Living With Uncertainty

Community Behavioral Health: The Missing Quadrant

link to paper:

https://t.co/yniGQhAqQL?amp=1

Two really interesting papers, both with examples of ‘systems laws’ and attempts at identifying core unifying principles.

Systems Theory as the Foundation for Understanding Systems Kevin MacG. Adams, Old Dominion University Peggy T. Hester, Old Dominion UniversityFollow Joseph M. Bradley, Old Dominion University Thomas J. Meyers, Old Dominion University Charles B. Keating, Old Dominion UniversityFollow Document Type Article Publication Date 2014

“Systems Theory as the Foundation for Understanding Systems” by Kevin MacG. Adams, Peggy T. Hester et al.

DOI:10.1504/IJSSE.2015.068805Corpus ID: 20201734 Systems theory as a foundation for governance of complex systems Kaitlynn M. Whitney, J. Bradley, +1 author Charles W. Chesterman Published 2015 Engineering, Computer Science Int. J. Syst. Syst. Eng. The broad set of propositions identified in systems literature (circa 1900–2000s) provides an adequate, largely comprehensive subset of the complete set of all systems theory propositions. Discoverers’ induction can then be applied to integrate common ideas among propositions in order to produce a set of generalised laws (axioms). A proposal for a systems theory construct resting on an axiomatic set supported by unified systems theory propositions was presented by Adams et al. (2014). This paper refines the work of Adams et al. using discoverer’s induction and further describes the axioms provided and their role in complex systems. LESS

[PDF] Systems theory as a foundation for governance of complex systems | Semantic Scholar

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Ministry of Change | Innovation Community of Practice

book at https://undp.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_Gtbv7dKtQCGPcvYoWM-Ygw

• Interested in system transformation more than shiny new apps?Curious about the direction as well as the speed of innovation?So are we, and we’re holding an innovation community of practice gathering to explore.Register for the Global Track
• ‘Ministry of Change’ is a week dedicated to connecting our innovation community of practice networks with case studies, interactive workshops, peer learning and reflection sessions – focused especially on systems change and transformation MOC is hosted collaboratively by UNDP’s Regional Innovation Centre for the Asia Pacific and States of Change.
• Get on trackFrom ‘Edge’ to ‘Systems Spectrum’ Sessions,you can see the high level below at a glance

Innovation Community of Practice: Systems Spectrum Sessions (a collaboration between States of Change and UNDP)

FacebookTwitterLinkedInMicrosoft (Outlook)TopicInnovation Community of Practice: Systems Spectrum Sessions (a collaboration between States of Change and UNDP)DescriptionWelcome to the “Global Track” of the Ministry of Change Innovation CoP Week!

From Monday, October 5th through Friday, the 9th we have a special set of curated sessions designed to walk across a spectrum of systems change and transition practices. From field practitioner cases, to less obvious ways of approaching complex challenges, we hope you join.

The style is casual- no sage on a stage- but deeply curious as we get serious about unlearning and uncovering new ways of working and generating impact.

Here’s what we have in store for you to select as you wish. Join one or all-

Session 1, October 5 at 3:30pm ICT =
Inclusive Systems Innovation:
big collaborations and small circles with Kelly Ann McKercher of Beyond Sticky Notes AND Felicty Tan and Reycel Hyacenth Bendaña of wesolve.

Session 2, October 6 at 3:30pm ICT =
Navigating Systems Transitions:
the view from data labs with Petrarca Karetji, UN Pulse Lab – Jakarta AND Enrico Gaveglia, UNDP Philippines, Pintig Lab

Session 3, October 7 at 3:00pm ICT =
Long-termism for policymaking with Ella Saltmarsh, The Long Time Project

Session 4, October 8 at 3:30pm ICT =
The Learning Curve:insights from COVID to climate change with Climate KIC AND States of Change

Session 5, October at 3:30pm ICT =
A letter to my younger (innovator) self with States of Change AND UNDPTimeYou can choose to attend one or more of the following webinars.
 Oct 5, 2020 03:30 PM
 Oct 6, 2020 03:30 PM
 Oct 7, 2020 03:00 PM
 Oct 8, 2020 03:30 PM
 Oct 9, 2020 03:30 PM
Time shows in Bangkok

book at source:

Ministry of Change | Innovation Community of Practice

book at https://undp.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_Gtbv7dKtQCGPcvYoWM-Ygw

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cybernetic serendipity – Post-

october 1, 2020 | arts and culture

cybernetic serendipity

art in times of panic

article by zach braner, illustrated by sable bellew

Escapism demands more of me these days. It used to be enough to open Netflix. There’d be some decades-old program with just enough of a nostalgic ember burning for me to huddle around, warming me into gentle numbness. But the world has changed, my mind’s a bit jumpier, and I take my escapes as they come. That means endlessly wandering the internet as I do classwork, waiting for a fateful surprise—waiting for cybernetic serendipity.

         That’s a phrase I encountered halfway down a Wikipedia rabbit hole. I was ostensibly there for some class-related research, but of course the inner mind knows better—Internet, take me away. Seeing the phrase cybernetic serendipity, then, was a bit like seeing your deepest subconscious desire printed on a billboard over the freeway. Wikipedia had gifted me a blue hyperlink that promised the exact thing I didn’t know I was looking for. The phrase “cybernetic serendipity” is not vivid; it’s got enough syllables to refer to just about anything (except our present moment—whatever cybernetic serendipity is, this is not it). Perfect—I closed all my other tabs and clicked through.

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cybernetic serendipity – Post-

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Systems Thinking Can Help Spark and Sustain Change – Aurora Institute

Systems Thinking Can Help Spark and Sustain Change

EDUCATION DOMAIN BLOG

September 28, 2020

Authors: Katherine Prince

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Transitioning education systems to be competency-based represents a massive shift from established ways of doing things. It involves shifting practice, reorienting outcomes, and building understanding and shared vision among educators, learners, families, community members, and other stakeholders. Teachers have to facilitate and assess learning differently. Students have to take more ownership of their learning journeys. Families have to develop new lenses for understanding children’s development. Community members have to shift their expectations of what learning looks like, where it happens, and what supports the school’s need.

Even though competency-based education has gained significant traction over the past several years and has been getting a boost through some responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, the path forward with any transformation of its magnitude is rarely linear. For the approach to spread and put down roots, many people and organizations need to become champions and take action. Even after successful growth, on the ground can be lost, as what happened in Maine.

The movement to spread competency-based education represents a form of systems change. Any systems change requires committing to doing something differently and then sustaining that effort over time, even after the initial swell of enthusiasm has waned. Transforming systems in this way is hard, long-haul work. However, the path can be eased by using aspects of systems thinking to shed new light on how education systems are operating today, where change efforts are intersecting with long-established patterns of behavior and systemic structures, what assumptions the people involved bring to the work, and the gaps between desired and actual outcomes.

Systems thinking is a set of theories, tools, language, and mindsets that can help people grapple with the complex and interconnected world around us and make visible our perceptions of how it works. It can help us deepen our understanding of what stands between our aspirational visions and us and articulate what it might take to bring those visions to life.

Some systems thinking’s key tenets appear below.

• A system’s behavior is shaped by its structure. People often try to change how a system behaves by altering its individual parts, or by finding initial inroads and reaching for low-hanging fruit. But a system’s structure – the way its components are organized and interact – determines its behavior, shaping both what we see happening day-to-day and what is possible long term. Structural change is necessary to sustain systems change. For example, even with a strong district-wide implementation of competency-based education, it is very hard to sustain the approach when state accountability systems remain focused on measures that are tied to seat time and reflect narrow views of success.
• Systems are interdependent, with circular cause and effect. Everything in a system is connected to everything else. Feedback loops – where one thing affects another, which affects another, often in non-obvious ways – keep systems running without the constant care and tending of every element. When we want to make a change, it is all too easy to isolate a few elements of a system and to decide that shifting them will bring about the desired outcomes. Systems thinking provide tools for selecting which variables are most relevant to the intended change and then making their interconnections visible. When we can see how an education system is operating today, we can identify effective ways of moving toward what we want for its future.
• Systems achieve the results they are designed to achieve. Education changemakers used to talk a lot about how broken our education systems were. More recently, more people have been voicing the reality that they are not broken. Instead, our education systems are producing the results that they were designed to achieve. Often, those results are not what people say we want from education or are not the things that we want the most. Education systems produce those outcomes because of how those systems have been organized over the years. For example, imagine that a school decided to eliminate recess so that students could spend more time on academics and then found that students were struggling to focus. While the school would not have intended for students to have trouble attending to their work, that outcome would be a result of the way the school had chosen to structure its system. Approaching change with a systems mindset can help us see what is driving the results that we are trying to change.
• The consequences of actions are not always immediate. When we get excited about making change, we tend to want to see its effects right away. But delays often exists in systems, whether in how quickly information travels or in how long it takes for the effects of a change to occur. Delays are especially prevalent in education systems, where understanding the effect of today’s approaches on learners can take years. This dynamic means that the positive outcomes of an effective change effort or the negative consequences of an ineffective one are often delayed. For example, when a school implements a new curriculum, no one knows exactly how long it might take to determine whether that curriculum is having the intended effects. When possible, shortening delays can help changemakers acquire more timely information to guide our actions.
• Mental models underpin systems. Mental models are the values and beliefs that influence how people understand and act in the world. They come from our experiences. Our mental models influence the decisions that we make and therefore influence how the systems in which we participate are organized. Conversely, systems shape our experiences and therefore also our mental models. We need mental models to help us make sense of the world; otherwise, there would be too much to process at the moment. But if we get stuck in those frames, assuming that things have to be or look a certain way, we can limit our perception of what is possible and can unwittingly perpetuate the very systems approaches that we are trying to change.

Systems thinking are a complex and sophisticated field, with many tools and processes available to help people understand and change how systems are operating. To help simplify the process of applying this way of thinking to education, KnowledgeWorks’ Looking Beneath the Surface: The Education Changemaker’s Guide to Systems Thinking introduces education stakeholders and changemakers to the field’s theories, language, mindsets, and tools. It introduces the core concepts of systems thinking and offers practice questions and exercises. Its four lessons focus on identifying the systems behavior that stakeholders wish to change, visualizing the structure of current system behavior, identifying possible actions and their depth of impact, and evaluating the effects of various interventions and events.

The tools and processes described in KnowledgeWorks’ systems change guidebook can help groups pursuing competency-based education and other forms of systems change:

• Identify novel, non-obvious solutions
• Share power and build leadership capacity
• Anticipate possible unintended consequences of well-meaning efforts and
• Reframe problems related to change efforts.

In using them, education stakeholders can engage in new ways of thinking and collaborating, exposing what is often unseen and articulating what usually goes unsaid. That engagement can in turn lead to new ways of being and acting. Those shifts in people’s interactions, perspectives, and pursuits can help groups begin, nurture, and sustain the movement toward competency-based education.

Blog Contributer:
Katherine Prince, KnowledgeWorks
@katprince

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Systems Thinking Can Help Spark and Sustain Change – Aurora Institute

Shared on LinkedIn – https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dr-mike-c-jackson-obe-b27b7a12_systems-thinking-activity-6714878172573380608-lsSN/

For those interested in critical systems thinking and practice, some new material:

First, in the ‘systems stream’ at the 2020 ORS online conference. This was with Luis Sambo and was called ‘CST: Lessons from the 2014 Ebola Epidemic for the UK’s Response to the Covid-19 Pandemic’ https://lnkd.in/gMFWr7j With Q & A, it lasts an hour.

The second and third were for the World Organization of Systems and Cybernetics (WOSC) online conference. They can be accessed from the site www.wosc2020.org – go to WOSC2020 Online

There is a 20 minute standalone presentation on CST. There is also a 15 minute contribution to ‘WOSC 2020 Online discussions day 1’. my contribution starts at 36 minutes.

Also, the first of a series of papers I am writing on the 4 stages of critical systems thinking has now been published in Systems Research and Behavioral Science and is available on ResearchGate:
https://lnkd.in/ghTXX8T

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Thinking Differently Principles of Process in Living Systems and the Specificity of Being Known: Psychoanalytic Dialogues: Vol 12, No 1

Thinking Differently Principles of Process in Living Systems and the Specificity of Being Known

Louis W. Sander M.D.Pages 11-42 | Published online: 01 Jul 2008

• https://doi.org/10.1080/10481881209348652

Abstract

As a way of integrating emerging knowledge of biological systems, developmental process, and therapeutic process, we identify principles in the process of exchange between organism and its context of life support that are present at all levels of complexity in living systems, from the cellular to the organization of consciousness. These principles range from specificity, rhythmicity, recurrence, and pattern to coherence, wholeness, and a relative unity in the organization of component parts. By proposing that these principles are also governing the exchange between mother and infant as they negotiate a sequence of essential tasks of adaptation, or “fitting-together” between them over the first years of life, the author suggests that the biological level becomes integrated with the developmental. A sequence of adaptive tasks extends from specificity of recognition in the newborn state, to recognition of inner awareness, purpose, and intention—shaping conscious organization. The bridge to the therapeutic level is constructed as therapist and patient build increasingly inclusive and coherent moments of recognition between themselves at the level of conscious organization, which act as corrective experiences, bringing the patient’s own senses of “true self” and of “agency-to-initiate” to new levels of validity and competence.

source (paywalled):

Thinking Differently Principles of Process in Living Systems and the Specificity of Being Known: Psychoanalytic Dialogues: Vol 12, No 1