antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor 11:01 am on March 11, 2020
Tags: covid19

Modelling ‘flattening the curve’ – links #COVID19 #FlattenTheCurve #coronavirus

This is a great use of modeling & simulation to better understand a public health issue. #COVID19 #ComplexSystems https://t.co/UH7A7NFbGr

— CMAC (@MindandCulture) March 11, 2020

This is an excellent read on the effectiveness of the lockdown measures now implemented in many countries.

In short: they work pretty well if started early enough.#FlattenTheCurve #coronavirus #COVID19
https://t.co/qbwPFLb7U0

— Andreas Steinmayr (@a_steinmayr) March 11, 2020

antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor 6:15 pm on March 11, 2020

Learn from the pandemic in a box.https://t.co/CoZu2ugtx2

— Dave Ackley (@livcomp) March 11, 2020
antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor 9:47 am on March 12, 2020

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?fbclid=IwAR284yhxm9HWLSfoyzDe8GlDhW6htC6XBdKO_GHOC4uWDjopKlmmF357T-M#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor 5:27 am on March 16, 2020

Exponential growth and epidemics (video)

Vensim SIR modeling primer https://metasd.com/2020/03/vensim-sir-modeling-primer/

Someone’s ‘end Coronavirus’ website: https://www.endcoronavirus.org/

Basic data about the Virus:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

In the spirit that we are all now playing a supply chain game similar to the Beer Game, here is a link on the CLE website that links to the Soda game, created for kids from the Beer Game. The models are in a very outdated version of STELLA, but the lesson can give you the gist.
http://static.clexchange.org/ftp/documents/x-curricular/CC1995-05SodaGame.pdf.zip

Lastly, here is a simulation for the Infection Game from the Shape of Change for younger students:

http://www.clexchange.org/curriculum/shapeofchange/soc_5_Infection.asp

The game itself can be found at http://static.clexchange.org/ftp/documents/x-curricular/CC2010-11Shape5InfectionGameSF.pdf

(Most of the above via Lees N. Stuntz, from Creative Learning Exchange
antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor 6:05 am on March 16, 2020

Eyam recalls lessons from 1665 battle with plague http://bit.ly/2WjqFMT
- antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor 6:22 am on March 16, 2020
  
  https://forio.com/app/jeroen_struben/corona-virus-covid19-seir-simulator/index.html#introduction.html
antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor 7:26 am on March 16, 2020

https://paulcairney.wordpress.com/2020/03/15/the-coronavirus-and-evidence-informed-policy-analysis-long-version/
- antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor 7:27 am on March 16, 2020
  
  One that I don’t think is really worthy – very basic simulation of how we might ‘hope’ – at a simple level – to ‘flatten the curve’
  https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
  - antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor 1:20 pm on March 16, 2020
    
    Tom Fiddaman said:
    https://metasd.com/2020/03/vensim-sir-modeling-primer/
    
    David Wheat said:
    Here’s a link to an old model online, one that (a) shows the dynamics of an epidemic and (b) the importance of having the infrastructure in place to implement a policy solution.
    https://exchange.iseesystems.com/public/david-wheat/epidemic-game-policy/index.html#page1
antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor 5:03 pm on March 16, 2020

From Complexity Explorer
Complexity Explorer’s Agent Based Modeling instructor, Anamaria Berea, PhD, who is an Associate Term Professor in Computational and Data Sciences at George Mason University, – the modeling she is currently working on: http://modelingcommons.org/browse/one_model/6227#model_tabs_browse_info

From Anamaria:

At George Mason University, we built during the past few days a preliminary agent-based model of COVID-19 spread. We are updating the version of the model here regularly.

This model is built upon a general spatial model of virus spread, where agents can get infected by being in touch with each other, with a certain probability. This probability is reflected in the “infectiousness” parameter and can be adjusted by the user of the model. We refined this model by tracking the age of each agent in the population and adjusting the chances of recovery based on agent’s age (using current COVID-19 data).

We are tracking children with the blue color and the elderly with the yellow color, while the other agents are green if healthy, gray if recovered and potentially immunized, and red if infected. We also included rough climate and humidity exogenous parameters, and adjusted the rate of infectiousness based on this (currently not informed by COVID-19 data). The chances of recovery and infectiousness rates are informed by the COVID-19 data as well, globally, while the birth rates and lifespan of the population are informed by the worldwide real data.

The model can be initialized with any number of agents up to 1000 and, this being a spatial model, we observed that the higher the population density, the longer it takes for the epidemic to die out. We also observed that the number of agents that recover from the infection dips faster but also increases faster in warmer climates, while it deeps slower and increases slower in colder climates. This is ongoing work and we are still to run full parameter sweeps to test for the statistical significance of results. We also plan to include GIS features to the model, so that we allow for realistic spatial definition for the movement of the agents.

You can view and interact with the model here: http://modelingcommons.org/browse/one_model/6227#model_tabs_browse_info
- antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor 4:48 pm on March 17, 2020
  
  A Cybernetics-based Dynamic Infection Model for Analyzing SARS-COV-2 Infection Stability and Predicting Uncontrollable Risks
  View ORCID ProfileWenlei Xiao, Qiang Liu, J Huan, Pengpeng Sun, Liuquan Wang, Chenxin Zang, Sanying Zhu, Liansheng Gao
  doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.13.20034082
  This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.
  
  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.20034082v1
  
  Since December 2019, COVID-19 has raged in Wuhan and subsequently all over China and the world. We propose a Cybernetics-based Dynamic Infection Model (CDIM) to the dynamic infection process with a probability distributed incubation delay and feedback principle. Reproductive trends and the stability of the SARS-COV-2 infection in a city can then be analyzed, and the uncontrollable risks can be forecasted before they really happen. The infection mechanism of a city is depicted using the philosophy of cybernetics and approaches of the control engineering. Distinguished with other epidemiological models, such as SIR, SEIR, etc., that compute the theoretical number of infected people in a closed population, CDIM considers the immigration and emigration population as system inputs, and administrative and medical resources as dynamic control variables. The epidemic regulation can be simulated in the model to support the decision-making for containing the outbreak. City case studies are demonstrated for verification and validation.
antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor 3:13 am on March 18, 2020

https://meltingasphalt.com/interactive/outbreak/
antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor 4:38 pm on March 18, 2020
- antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor 5:18 am on March 19, 2020
  
  https://sheetless.io/@kimwarren/sir-models?s=9IZ0o1HzQBuqtzq3F1-Bhw
antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor 9:31 am on March 22, 2020

NB:
http://dailyimprovisation.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-problem-with-mathematical-modelling.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MarkJohnsonsImprovisationBlog+%28Mark+Johnson%27s+Improvisation+Blog%29
- antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor 10:32 am on March 25, 2020
  
  https://covid.barabasilab.com/
antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor 4:44 pm on March 25, 2020

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-policy-scientific-dominic-cummings
antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor 1:15 pm on March 29, 2020
antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor 3:54 pm on April 1, 2020

https://syllabus.pirate.care/topic/coronanotes/?fbclid=IwAR2heoSnmhpVFyp0vpH3lIlNNWC9TWz1RTid1rYodPoMAW8ZcW4LiXR5MoE
antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor 4:23 pm on April 1, 2020
antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor 2:46 am on April 2, 2020

View at Medium.com
antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor 4:32 pm on April 5, 2020

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/kimwarren_covid19-activity-6652499547798937601-CDNR

Kim Warren
Strategy writer | Strategy+Business modelling | Online strategy course + software
#covid19 I have been working with Maurice Glucksman to develop a localisable policy model. [we first got it to match the Imperial College model for UK, then adjusted to fit the faster-than-predicted growth in cases to date]

The motivation is that COVID-spread and health-service response are both REGIONAL issues. A city or cluster and its catchment region is unique. So regional policy-makers need to assess its own trajectory and policy options. ‘Region’ = daily traffic in/out of the area is small, relative to internal mingling of people.

Coming we aim to add [1] policy to isolate the vulnerable and not-lockdown others – Sweden’s strategy [2] capacity to test-trace-isolate people not known to be infected [3] better hospital-capacity modeling.

For the latest version of the COVID-19 Infection System model:
… get how-to videos http://sdl.re/COVIDvideos
… get the model instructions at https://lnkd.in/dFkCAsA
… get the model itself at http://sdl.re/COVIDmodel (for any recent browser except MS Edge)
… get the supporting spreadsheet to collect data for your region at http://sdl.re/COVIDdata

If you have a moment, please check it out [videos first?] and if it looks OK and useful, share it with people who may find it useful. It would be helpful to know if you do.
antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor 3:50 pm on April 7, 2020

see also https://stream.syscoi.com/2020/04/07/please-join-and-contribute-covid-19-resources-systems-community-facebook-group/
- antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor 10:17 am on April 15, 2020
  
  all updates will now be directed to the above group if not worthy of a main syscoi item – see e.g. https://comdig.unam.mx/2020/04/15/centralized-and-decentralized-isolation-strategies-and-their-impact-on-the-covid-19-pandemic-dynamics/
antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor 3:26 pm on April 12, 2020

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6

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