Author Archives: antlerboy - Benjamin P Taylor
THE SENSEMAKING WEB BRAINDUMP – Google Docs
Source: THE SENSEMAKING WEB BRAINDUMP – Google Docs
THE SENSEMAKING WEB
Also-and: postrationalism, metarationalism, emergensia, intellectual light web, inter-intellect, metagame, etc.
Rough initial braindump of people & media & topics related to “The Sensemaking Web”, my favourite emerging corner of the internet.
Managed by: @gwendolynhuot (Twitter handle) / feel free to add comments, which I will add to the doc.
If anyone wants to reuse this data, go ahead!
UPDATE August 22, 2019: CAVEAT! I hear people say that “the map is not the territory” and “not even wrong.” I want to state that “a list is not even a map.” You can’t even imagine how subjective and haphazard and incomplete and misleading this list is, but I still believe it’s useful to share. I would love to see & share someone else’s “Sensemaking Web” notes.
[Headings:]
A: MEMES & TERMS & CONCEPTS
B: SENSEMAKING PODCASTS
C) WEBSITES / COMMUNITIES / ORGS:
D) PEOPLE TO FOLLOW / ON TWITTER:
D2) MORE PEOPLE (SENSEMAKING-ADJACENT)
E) BLOGS:
F) YouTube:
G) UNSORTED
H) Common Interests / Adjacencies (also see “A: MEMES):
Some relevant links that define:
- A definition of “postrationality” – https://yearlycider.wordpress.com/2014/09/19/postrationality-table-of-contents/
- Metarationality: a messy introduction
https://drossbucket.wordpress.com/2017/09/30/metarationality-a-messy-introduction/ - Introducing key terms
https://meaningness.com/eggplant/terms
Full content in source: THE SENSEMAKING WEB BRAINDUMP – Google Docs
The Ultimate Guide to the OODA Loop | Toh Weimin – Academia.edu
The OODA loop was a tool developed by military strategist John Boyd to explain how individuals and organizations can win in uncertain and chaotic environments. It is an Acronym that explains the four steps of decisions making: Observe, Orient, Decide
Source: (DOC) The Ultimate Guide to the OODA Loop | Toh Weimin – Academia.edu
Math Proof Finds All Change Is Mix of Order and Randomness | Quanta Magazine
This seems significant?
Source: Math Proof Finds All Change Is Mix of Order and Randomness | Quanta Magazine
Proof Finds That All Change Is a Mix of Order and Randomness

Allison Filice for Quanta Magazine
That is the nature of one of the most sweeping results in mathematics in recent years. It’s a proof by Tim Austin, a mathematician at the University of California, Los Angeles. Instead of flowers, Austin’s work has to do with some of the most-studied objects in mathematics: the mathematical descriptions of change.
These descriptions, known as dynamical systems, apply to everything from the motion of the planets to fluctuations of the stock market. Wherever dynamical systems occur, mathematicians want to understand basic facts about them. And one of the most basic facts of all is whether dynamical systems, no matter how complex, can be broken up into random and deterministic elements.
This question is the subject of the “weak Pinsker conjecture,” which was first posed in the 1970s. Austin’s proof of the conjecture provides an elegantly intuitive lens through which to think about all manner of bewildering phenomena. He showed that at their heart, each of these dynamical systems is its own blend of chance and determinism.
Fate and Chance
A dynamical system starts with some input, like the position of a pendulum right now, applies some rules, like Newton’s laws of motion, and produces some output, like the pendulum’s position a second later. Importantly, dynamical systems allow you to repeat this process: You can take the pendulum’s new position, apply the same rules, and get its position another second later.
Dynamical systems also arise in purely mathematical form. You could choose a starting number, apply a rule that says “multiply your number by 2,” and output a new number. This system also allows you to feed the resulting number back into the rule to produce more values.
Certain types of dynamical systems have the property that they can be expressed as a combination of two simpler dynamical systems. The two systems operate independently of one another but can be merged to form the more complex system. To take an example, imagine a dynamical system that moves a point around on the surface of a cylinder: You input one point, apply the rules, and get out another point.
This system can be decomposed into two simpler systems. The first is a dynamical system that moves a point around on a circle. The second is a system that moves a point up and down along a vertical line. By combining the two — the movement around the circle with the movement up and down the line — you get the more complicated movement of a point on a cylinder.

Lucy Reading-Ikkanda/Quanta Magazine
“Rather than study the whole dynamical system, you want to break it into parts, the smallest parts that make sense to study,” said Kathryn Lindsey, a mathematician at Boston College.
There are two natural candidates for what these building blocks might be. The first are dynamical systems that are completely deterministic, like our example of the pendulum. If you know the position of the pendulum at one moment in time, you can predict its position indefinitely far into the future.
The second type of dynamical system is one that is completely random. For example, imagine a dynamical system with the following rule: Flip a coin. If it lands heads, walk to the left; if tails, walk to the right. The resulting path would be completely random, meaning that even if you know everything about the path up to a certain point, that information will do nothing to help you predict the next step.
While some dynamical systems are purely random, and others are completely deterministic, most fall somewhere in between — they’re blends of both. For example, imagine a twist on our random walk. This time, you’re on a flower-lined path where the colors of the flowers are themselves random. Our rule is the same: Coin flip comes up heads, move to the left; tails, move right. What is the sequence of colors of flowers that you visit?
At first you might think that it’s random. After all, the colors themselves have been assigned at random, and your motion is random. But once you have visited one color of flower, the odds are higher that you’ll visit that same flower again in the future, just by virtue of being close to it. The sequence of colors will not itself be purely random.
“If you’re at red right now, then that amplifies the chance you’ll see red two steps from now, because it could happen that you’ll go left and then right and end up back at the same place,” said Austin.
This “random walk in random scenery” system generates an output — a sequence of colors — that is partly random and partly not. In 1960 the mathematician Mark Pinsker conjectured that a certain large class of dynamical systems* have this feature: They’re each a mix of a random dynamical system mixed with a deterministic one.
“If the [original Pinsker conjecture] had been true, it would have been an amazing description of the world,” said Assaf Naor, a mathematician at Princeton University. Yet Pinsker was wrong. In 1973 Donald Ornstein proved Pinsker’s conjecture false. “It was an overly ambitious formulation,” said Bryna Kra, a mathematician at Northwestern University.
It often happens in math that after a sweeping conjecture is proven false, mathematicians attempt a more modest version of the statement. In 1977 mathematician Jean-Paul Thouvenot proposed the weak Pinsker conjecture. He softened the original formulation, conjecturing that the dynamical systems Pinsker had in mind are the product of a completely random system combined with a system that is almost completely deterministic.
The introduction of the qualifier “almost” distinguished Thouvenot’s conjecture from Pinsker’s. By it, he meant that the simple deterministic system needed to have at least a trace of randomness in it. That trace could be vanishingly small, but it needed to be there. And as long as it was, Thouvenot asserted, Pinsker’s vision would hold.
“It was close to the initial conjecture, and Thouvenot showed if it were true, it had a whole list of beautiful applications,” said Naor.
In the following decades, mathematicians made little progress on a proof of the weak Pinsker conjecture. The lack of traction started to make Thouvenot think that even his scaled-down formulation was going to turn out to be wrong. “At one point I thought it would go the opposite, it would not be universal,” he said.
Then Tim Austin came along.
A Stepwise Solution
Proving the weak Pinsker conjecture required finding a precise way to run a dynamical system through a kind of sieve — something that would separate its random and almost-deterministic elements. Previous work on the problem had established that the small random elements were the hardest to isolate.
“The small [random] factors are much harder to capture, and this is the heart of the proof, to find a way to capture the small [random] structure,” said Thouvenot.
Austin managed to understand the small, random elements in a dynamical system through a shift in perspective. Dynamical systems operate on continuous space, like a point moving over the surface of a cylinder or a pendulum swinging through space. Within these spaces, points move in continuous arcs according to the rules of the dynamical systems that govern them. These dynamical systems also continue for infinitely many steps — you can let them run forever.
But in his proof, Austin left smooth, continuous space behind and forgot about dynamical systems running forever. Instead he started to analyze what happens when you let them run for a discrete amount of time, like 1 million steps. In this, he was executing a method envisioned by Thouvenot.
“Thouvenot’s big contribution was that he figured out that if you can do the right kind of math with long finite strings” you can prove properties of the dynamical system, said Austin. “My contribution was to come in and prove the thing you need about the long finite strings.”
Austin thought about a dynamical system as outputting a sequence of 1s and 0s. If the dynamical system is the flip of a coin, it’s easy to see how to do this: Call heads 1 and tails 0. But any dynamical system can be used to generate a binary sequence, just by splitting the space in which it operates into two (not necessarily equal) parts.

Lucy Reading-Ikkanda/Quanta Magazine
With the example of a dynamical system on the cylinder, for instance, if your point lands in one part of the cylinder, you call the output of the system 1, and if it lands in the other part of the cylinder, you call the output 0.
Austin analyzed these binary sequences using a tool from information theory called “Hamming cubes.” Imagine a cube made by vertices connected by edges. Each vertex gets assigned three binary digits — 001 or 101, say. Every time you move from one vertex to another, one of those three digits will flip.
Hamming cubes can be far more complex than our simple example — involving far more edges and vertices in more than three dimensions — but they all have the property that the distance between any two vertices — that is, the number of edges that you need to traverse to get from one vertex to another — is equal to the number of places the strings of information on those two vertices differ. So 000 is one edge away from 001, two edges away from 011 and three from 111.

Lucy Reading-Ikkanda/Quanta Magazine
In order to isolate the random and deterministic elements that make up a more complicated dynamical system, Austin thought about how frequently a dynamical system produces a given sequences of 1s and 0s as represented on the Hamming cube. He proved that the sequences are distributed on the Hamming cube in a certain way. They cluster into a small number of subregions on the cube — this clustering reflects the determinism in the system — but are distributed among the sequences within those clusters in a randomlike way, which reflects the system’s randomness.
The roundabout method turned out to be a necessary path for solving a problem that had defied direct approaches.
“I was surprised not so much that [weak Pinsker] is true or false, but that one could prove it, because it seemed like a very subtle problem,” said Lewis Bowen, a mathematician at the University of Texas, Austin. “Before the proof we were largely ignorant about whether something like this could be done.”
Austin’s result imposes a basic structure on a wide range of dynamical systems. For mathematicians, who often find themselves swimming among objects that feel related even if they can’t say exactly how, the proof reveals a strict geography. They now have a guide to these dynamical systems, though exactly what discoveries the guide will yield remains open.
“Mathematicians are always interested in what the building blocks of something are,” said Lindsey. “[Austin’s proof] is a really nice result that probably will have lots of applications in pure math, but I myself don’t know what they will be.”
Source: Math Proof Finds All Change Is Mix of Order and Randomness | Quanta Magazine
Taking a complexity lens to understanding evaluation failure – The Tavistock Institute
Source: Taking a complexity lens to understanding evaluation failure – The Tavistock Institute
Taking a complexity lens to understanding evaluation failure
In a new blog post on the CECAN website, Dione Hills suggests that a knowledge of complexity and complex adaptive systems can help in understanding why some evaluations run into serious difficulties.
The blog post takes as its starting point a recently published book on ‘Evaluation Failure’ in which experienced evaluators describe 22 evaluations that went badly wrong, and what learning they took away from these. The choice of evaluation design, in itself, was rarely seen to be the primary cause of difficulties. In most cases, there were dynamics at play in the policies or programmes under evaluation which got in the way of, and sometimes totally prevented, an effective evaluation to be undertaken.
The evaluators often felt blamed themselves – and their lack of experience – for these evaluations being unsuccessful, describing their failure to spot and address ‘red flags’ at an early stage, or in some cases, not ‘calling time’ on an evaluation that was clearly going no-where. But an alternative view is to see these dynamics as having provided insight into – and data about – the policies and programmes themselves, particularly if interpreted through a ‘complexity lens’. Drawing on insights from complexity science, several of the dynamics described in the book can be understood in terms of key characteristics of complex dynamic systems. Inherently unpredictable, such systems are very vulnerable to changes in their wider context, often riven with tension and lack of agreement between different stakeholder groups involved, with individuals or groups in key ‘gatekeeping’ roles sometimes failing to allow the evaluator access to data, or rejecting well-evidenced findings.
Understanding all of this in complexity terms does not, of course, not guarantee that the difficulties can be overcome. However, taking this view of evaluation failure does highlight the importance of evaluators having ‘soft skills’ in being able to ‘read’ organisational dynamics, manage conflict and communicate clearly, as well as having ‘hard’ technical skills in evaluation design and research methods. Opportunities to learn these skills are sadly lacking in the evaluation field, and it hoped that the Tavistock Institute can address this gap soon, in developing new courses for evaluators drawing on Tavistock based understanding of group and organisational behaviour
This topic will also be explored in Dione’s keynote speech at the upcoming Norwegian Evaluation Conference next month (Sept 19-20th).
For more information on this and related topics, please contact Dione Hills at d.hills@tavinstitute.org
Systems Innovation – YouTube – interviews around the Systems Innovation London conference, September 2019
Visual Guide to Human Cells – Allen Cell Explorer
Cells are far more complex than we are taught in school…
Interactive guide to stem cells and cell biology with 3D models and real microscopy data of GFP labeled hiPSCs.
Bacteria Use Brainlike Bursts of Electricity to Communicate | Quanta Magazine
Source: Bacteria Use Brainlike Bursts of Electricity to Communicate | Quanta Magazine
Bacteria Use Brainlike Bursts of Electricity to Communicate

Olena Shmahalo/ Quanta Magazine
Bacteria have an unfortunate — and inaccurate — public image as isolated cells twiddling about on microscope slides. The more that scientists learn about bacteria, however, the more they see that this hermitlike reputation is deeply misleading, like trying to understand human behavior without referring to cities, laws or speech. “People were treating bacteria as … solitary organisms that live by themselves,” said Gürol Süel, a biophysicist at the University of California, San Diego. “In fact, most bacteria in nature appear to reside in very dense communities.”
The preferred form of community for bacteria seems to be the biofilm. On teeth, on pipes, on rocks and in the ocean, microbes glom together by the billions and build sticky organic superstructures around themselves. In these films, bacteria can divide labor: Exterior cells may fend off threats, while interior cells produce food. And like humans, who have succeeded in large part by cooperating with each other, bacteria thrive in communities. Antibiotics that easily dispatch free-swimming cells often prove useless against the same types of cells when they’ve hunkered down in a film.
As in all communities, cohabiting bacteria need ways to exchange messages. Biologists have known for decades that bacteria can use chemical cues to coordinate their behavior. The best-known example, elucidated by Bonnie Bassler of Princeton University and others, is quorum sensing, a process by which bacteria extrude signaling molecules until a high enough concentration triggers cells to form a biofilm or initiate some other collective behavior.
Continues in source: Bacteria Use Brainlike Bursts of Electricity to Communicate | Quanta Magazine
Information gerrymandering and undemocratic decisions
In a voter game, information gerrymandering can sway the outcome of the vote towards one party, even when both parties have equal sizes and each player has the same influence; and this effect can be exaggerated by strategically placed zealots or automated bots.
Information gerrymandering and undemocratic decisions
Alexander J. Stewart, Mohsen Mosleh, Marina Diakonova, Antonio A. Arechar, David G. Rand & Joshua B. Plotkin
Naturevolume 573, pages 117–121 (2019)
Source: www.nature.com
Scale-free networks – rare or…?
Paper: Scale-free networks are rare (Broido and Clauset, 2019) | Nature
A new study challenges one of the most celebrated and controversial ideas in network science. (See comments for reflections on the controversy)
Source: Scant Evidence of Power Laws Found in Real-World Networks | Quanta Magazine
Are scale-free networks rare or universal? Important or not? We present the recent research about degree distributions of networks. This is a controversial topic, but, we argue, with some adjustments of the terminology, it does not have to be.
Source: Rare and everywhere: Perspectives on scale-free networks, Petter Holme (2019) | Nature
Discussion and links: Scale-free networks are rare
A study’s failure to find scale-free networks where decades of research has documented their existence offers a cautionary tale on using search criteria that fails elementary tests.
Source: Love is All You Need – Albert-László Barabási responds
The Neuroscience of Reality
(Article unforunately paywalled)
- The reality we perceive is not a direct reflection of the external objective world.
- Instead it is the product of the brain’s predictions about the causes of incoming sensory signals.
- The property of realness that accompanies our perceptions may serve to guide our behavior so that we respond appropriately to the sources of sensory signals.
The Neuroscience of Reality
Anil Seth
Scientific American
Source: www.scientificamerican.com
Haines Centre Australia – articles, eBooks & complimentary webinars
Source: Resources – articles, eBooks & complimentary webinars | Haines Centre Australia
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Strategic Management Training and Consulting
Resources – articles, eBooks & complimentary webinars
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Foucault on the art of distributions
I’ve been trying to make connections between Luhmann and Foucault. In Discipline and Punish, Foucault writes,
In the first instance, discipline proceeds from the distribution of individuals in space. To achieve this end, it employs several techniques. [. . .]
But the principle of ‘enclosure’ is neither constant, nor indispensable, nor sufficient in disciplinary machinery. This machinery works space in a much more flexible and detailed way. It does this first of all on the principle of elementary location or partitioning. Each individual has his own place; and each place its individual. Avoid distributions in groups; break up collective dispositions; analyse confused, massive or transient pluralities. Disciplinary space tends to be divided into as many sections as there are bodies or elements to be distributed. One must eliminate the effects of imprecise distributions, the uncontrolled disappearance of individuals, their diffuse circulation, their unusable and dangerous coagulation; it…
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Wicked Problems: The Implications for Public Management, and Wicked Problems in Public Policy, both 2008
Source: Wicked Problems: The Implications for Public Management
January 2008
Source: Wicked Problems in Public Policy
January 2008
Brian Head
Cybernetics – Wikipedia
Quite a good intro
Source: Cybernetics – Wikipedia


