via Systems Thinking Ontario – 2020-05-11

via Systems Thinking Ontario – 2020-05-11

via System Dynamics meets COVID-19 Tickets, Thu 28 May 2020 at 09:30 | Eventbrite

MAY 28

System Dynamics meets COVID-19

by UK Chapter of the System Dynamics Society

Free

Event Information

An online event show-casing applications of SD modelling in response to the current pandemic.Hosted by the UK Chapter of the System Dynamics

About this Event

The event will briefly describe how system dynamics is suited to the modelling of an epidemic and a generic approach that will be reflected in three key contributions:

Kim Warren, Strategy Dynamics Ltd, will describe his work with Maurice Glucksman with the Pan-African Network for Rapid Research, Response & Preparedness for Infectious Diseases Epidemic (PANDORA) entitled Local outbreaks and local issues need local models.

Mark Gregson, Consultant with the Whole Systems Partnership, will outline his work in the Kent & Medway system entitled Reflections on developing a whole system demand and capacity model for an Integrated Health and Care System in the UK.

Erik Pruyt, Center for Policy Exploration Analysis and Simulation in the Netherlands, will speak on Aggregated Systems Models towards Integrated Assessment Models linking COVID19 Epidemics, Economics, Livelihood across National, Regional and Local Scales: the Cases of Namibia, the Netherlands, and Peru.

SEIR diagram source: ISEE Systems 2020 (https://blog.iseesystems.com/)

via System Dynamics meets COVID-19 Tickets, Thu 28 May 2020 at 09:30 | Eventbrite

https://www.umio.io/#homepage

Health Ecosystem Value Design 2.0

Health Ecosystem Value Design Framework 2.0

We are delighted to announce the launch of the fully revised version of Health Ecosystem Value Design® 2.0, our comprehensive health and wellbeing ecosystem design, co-production and transition framework.

Version 2.0 of the Health Ecosystem Value Design® framework rises to the challenge of the “no return to normal” that Covid-19 offers us. 

It provides:

• A revised means to study health and disease by framing health ecosystems around a particular context of human experience, disease or condition

• A new “beyond biomedical” conception of health as individual, family, community and social group capacities or powers of acting

• A novel approach to explore and understand the emergence (both decline and recovery) of lived health experience over a duration of time

• A way to see and address real underlying structural forces that produce health and disease, as well as health and care system powers or ideologies, priorities, practices and outcomes

• A dynamic relational health ecosystem value model that moves beyond narrow exchange or transactional and outcome conceptions

• The first ever ecosystem value design method and capabilities diagnostic and development tool

DOWNLOAD THE SUMMARY FRAMEWORK DOCUMENT

The “U” Health Ecosystem Value Design® Method

Health Ecosystem Value Design® follows a “U” logic, method and flow. Each step in the “U” shown below contains a template for enquiry into Real Lived Experiences with Health, assemblages, structures and forces of health and the design of Health Ecosystem Value.

https://www.umio.io/#homepage

From their email:

Joachim P Sturmberg MBBS, DRACOG, MFM, FRACGP, PhD A/Prof of General Practice at the Departments of General Practice The Newcastle University, Newcastle – Australia. For over 30 years Joachim is practicing family medicine at Wamberal Surgery, Wamberal – Australia. He is the Foundation President of the International Society for Systems and Complexity Sciences for Health (ISSCSH), and he remains actively involved in the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners as well as co-leading the special interest groups in complexity in WONCA, ESPCH and NAPCRG. He has been instrumental in initiating the International Conferences for Systems and Complexity Sciences for Health. His research interests relate to the application of systems and complexity principles to health care delivery, health policy and health systems organisation. He has been invited to speak on these topics in Europe and North America, he has published extensively on these topics in peer-reviewed journals and has contributed several book chapters on these topics.

Bruno Kissling, Dr. med., is a family doctor. He worked in private practice (1982 bis 2019) in Berne, Switzerland. He was a board member of the Swiss Society of General Practice (1995-2003), Swiss delegate to the World Organization of Family Doctors WONCA (2000-2009), co-founder and co-editor-in-chief of the Swiss journal for family medicine PrimaryCare (2001-2014) and a teaching doctor at the Institute of Family Medicine, University of Berne. He published countless articles about family medicine in national and international journals. He participated in the documentary film trilogy “At the doctor’s side” by Sylviane Gindrat (2013). He co-authored three books: «Qualität in der Medizin – Briefe zwischen einem Hausarzt und einer Ethnologin» («Quality in medicine – letters between a family doctor and an anthropologist»; EMH, Muttenz, 2015), «Ich stelle mir eine Medizin vor… – Briefwechsel einer jungen Ärztin mit einem erfahrenen Hausarzt» («I imagine a medicine… – letters between a young doctor and an experienced family doctor»; rüffer & rub, Zürich, 2018) and «Die ärztliche Konsultation – systemisch -lösungsorientiert» («The medical consultation – systemic solution-oriented; Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht,Göttingen, 2019).

Shared for a friend of a friend

Draft systems thinking reading list

Benjamin.taylor@systemspractice.org

www.linkedin.com/in/antlerboy

www.twitter.com/antlerboy

Intro

A very partial and incomplete list!

Advice: there are *so many* flavours of systems thinking / complexity / cybernetics – do yourself a favour and don’t flog through stuff that doesn’t work for you, find things that bring your mind alive.

Start with the articles and skim through.

Many of the books can be found online for free (often pirated) – monoskop.org is good – useful for many modern management books (read the first chapter and you’ve got all the ideas) and for the old, deep stuff (read enough to see if you want to dive in) – but do buy the book if you value it.

Have a look at the core systems and the practice requirements at https://www.instituteforapprenticeships.org/apprenticeship-standards/systems-thinking-practitioner/ – you need both to be a systems practitioner

General RedQuadrant reading list (public service transformation with a flavour of systems thinking):
https://docs.google.com/document/d/19ji4L38JVVJiWj9EiSglY–q_rn_fr6a7G4MjnuDYK0/edit?usp=sharing

Groups to join:

For COVID-19, Rob Young has set up a facebook group to collate all systems-related updates – https://stream.syscoi.com/2020/04/07/please-join-and-contribute-covid-19-resources-systems-community-facebook-group/

Systems Community of Inquiry https://stream.syscoi.com/
(replaces model.report – systems thinking repository and discussion – see https://syscoi.com/model.report/model.report/newest.html for static archive)

Systems thinking network https://www.linkedin.com/groups/2639211

systems thinking facebook groups at

• the ecology of systems thinking https://www.facebook.com/groups/774241602654986
• systems sciences https://www.facebook.com/groups/2391509563

SCiO – Systems and Complexity in Organisation

• systemspractice.org.uk/events
• linkedin group – members only https://www.linkedin.com/groups/8146034
• Membership very cheap!

Nick Ananin’s systems thinking events map worldwide) https://goo.gl/4PXkCg

Other key systems thinking groups:

Illuminate/SIGNAL – building the field of systems change https://mailchi.mp/cf0bdef6497a/illuminate

Systems Convening – Bev and Etienne Wenger-Trayner are writing a manual, and a good group has formed: https://groups.io/g/systems-convening / https://wenger-trayner.com/systems-convening/

Systems innovation – http://systemsinnovation.io/ and slack at http://systemsinnovationteam.slack.com

Articles

Systems One: An Introduction to Systems Thinking – Draper L. Kauffman Jr. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1btuVMWRAIg0PelXOOJ07ddq0f_nTPTP7/view?usp=sharing (short book – 48 pages)

Making Work Systems Better – Luc Hoebeke (book – 138 pages) https://drive.google.com/file/d/17btE9GsAMi2M5j418IgDLhpNoR5lK3rR/view?usp=sharing

Epistemological Crises, Dramatic Narrative, and the Philosophy of Science – Alasdair MacIntyre https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VPkr5mIn8vnBw_mMl5rCOgMYroyYCx4p/view?usp=sharing (journal publication – 20 pages)

A first lesson in meta-rationality – David Chapman https://meaningness.com/metablog/bongard-meta-rationality

Barry Oshry’s Organic Systems Framework (power+systems) – human systems.

• There is no new paradigm – Barry Oshry (article – 17 pages) https://drive.google.com/file/d/10s9btOe8UP_3vx4JJRg2SPXcZJyiM39A/view?usp=sharing
• Social Systems: Understanding the power of position: A Diagnostic Level- Michael Sales
  http://www.artofthefuture.com/SocialSystems.html

An Overview of the Soft Systems Methodology – Stuart Burge (article – 14 pages) https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ngzFoLZScboUurv6TF47F3QkgXCh8vpG/view?usp=sharing

Leverage Points: Places to intervene in a System – Donnella Meadows (article – 21 pages) https://drive.google.com/file/d/18lO4QcbqBUhlm0EmtkjeauwDInhp1H_G/view?usp=sharing

Dancing with systems – Donnella Meadows
http://donellameadows.org/archives/dancing-with-systems/

A Systems Literacy Manifesto – Hugh Dubberly (presentation – 59 slides) https://drive.google.com/file/d/1OHQqAkwL48YM8iB4R7vJqJdLbd8SxmG7/view?usp=sharing

The Viable Systems Model

• Its provenance, development, methodology and pathology – Stafford Beer (journal publication – 19 pages) https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CQkzJMbMxRej_QN5yax_8qnxpHIApNA9/view?usp=sharing
• The Viable Systems Model Presentation – Jon Walker and Angela Espinosa (presentation – 42 slides) https://drive.google.com/open?id=1s0TTyzYd-wT9MiicXoRq-ir2N5vJ933v
• The Viable System Model and its Application to Complex Organizations – Allenna Leonard, Ph.D (academic paper – 13 pages) https://drive.google.com/file/d/1D7KW09osDqHv3GEb13lsj67fOffoOZzf/view?usp=sharing
• Stafford Beer’s Viable System Model An Interpretation By Trevor Hilder (journal publication – 49 pages)
• https://drive.google.com/open?id=10DdKEtSal9Ned_sQs3Sf_rGzzLcAoccG
• The Viable Systems Model Guide (journal publication – 94 pages) https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ODB2AIXzq3aDY-FBEdc9SzgRDaxkiKwI/view?usp=sharing
• Modelling Organisations using The Viable System Model Patrick Hoverstadt & Diane Bowling (article – nine pages) https://drive.google.com/open?id=1uMcv6hAVgihtkVZVc7rFNvYLUOwOb7Wy
• The SCiO Organisational Maturity Model – free, easy questionnaire generating interesting results and archetypes http://www.scio.org.uk/organisational-maturity-model

Simple Rules for a Complex World – Kathy Eisenhardt, Donald Sull (short article – 12 pages) https://hbr.org/2012/09/simple-rules-for-a-complex-world

Adaptiveness in human social organisation: some guiding principles – Michael Church (journal publication – ten pages) https://cmapspublic.ihmc.us/rid=1LLD90NQ0-N92GXZ- 29CZ/ADAPTIVENESS%20IN%20HUMAN%20SOCIAL%20ORGANISATION.htm

Chris Argyris: Theories of action, double-loop learning and organizational learning (journal publication – 23 pages) https://drive.google.com/open?id=1FMrOWbkU0BAJzbDlawwIjb6oOZkgNMSZ

Systems Approaches to Public Sector Challenges: Working with Change, OECD (free)

https://www.oecd.org/publications/systems-approaches-to-public-sector-challenges-9789264279865-en.htm

Wicked Solutions – Williams and Van ‘t Hof
https://writing.dawsoncollege.qc.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Wicked-Solutions-Second-Edition.pdf

Government

Treaty for Government – a systems thinking approach to Government – Ed Straw http://www.treatyforgovernment.com/ (book – 254 pages)

The Hidden Power of Systems Thinking – Ray Ison and Ed Straw
https://smile.amazon.co.uk/Hidden-Power-Systems-Thinking-Governance/dp/1138493996/

Stand & Deliver: A Design for Successful Government – Ed Straw (presentation – 21 slides) https://drive.google.com/file/d/1A8NTYzR78SbWci9Lcl3xLB_eMqqMD9xS/view?usp=sharing

Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed – James Scott (long book – 460 pages)
https://smile.amazon.co.uk/Seeing-Like-State-Condition-Institution/dp/0300078153

Barry Oshry’s Organic Systems Framework (power+systems)

• The Organic Systems Framework: A New Paradigm for Understanding and Intervening in Organizational Life – Barry Oshry (short book – 60 pages)
  Amazon: https://smile.amazon.com/Organic-Systems-Framework-Understanding-Organizational/dp/1911193619 
  RedQuadrant Library: https://redquadrant.libib.com/#52532310X

• Context, Context, Context: How Our Blindness to Context Cripples Even the Smartest Organizations – Barry Oshry (short book – 158 pages)
  Amazon: https://smile.amazon.co.uk/Context-Blindness-Cripples-Smartest- Organizations/dp/1911193287
  RedQuadrant library: https://redquadrant.libib.com/#26020488X

Navigating Complexity: The Essential Guide to Complexity Theory in Business and Management Arthur Battram (book – 270 pages)
Amazon: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Navigating-Complexity-Essential-Business- Management/dp/185835899X/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1427326475&sr=8- 3&keywords=navigating+complexity&pldnSite=1
RedQuadrant library: https://redquadrant.libib.com/#36939049X

The Fractal Organisation – Patrick Hoverstadt (book – 338 pages)
Amazon: http://smile.amazon.co.uk/Fractal-Organization-Creating-Sustainable- Organizations/dp/0470060565/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1427326460&sr=8- 1&keywords=the+fractal+organisation
RedQuadrant library: https://redquadrant.libib.com/#1029021X

Thinking in Systems: A Primer – Diana Wright, Donella H. Meadows (book – 240 pages)
Amazon: https://smile.amazon.co.uk/Thinking-Systems-Primer-Diana-Wright/dp/1844077268
RedQuadrant library: https://redquadrant.libib.com/#1031733X

Images of Organization – Gareth Morgan (long book – 520 pages)
Amazon: https://smile.amazon.co.uk/Images-Organization-Gareth-Morgan/dp/1412939798
RedQuadrant library: https://redquadrant.libib.com/#1029098X

The Little Book of Beyond Budgeting – Steve Morlidge (book – 96 pages) https://smile.amazon.co.uk/Little-Book-Beyond-Budgeting-Organisations/dp/1785899287

Unlocking Leadership Mindtraps – Jennifer Berger (article – 24 pages) https://drive.google.com/file/d/1G6SFoI5YnsATXtXXWlIwJl_zIL6ojGfb/view?usp=sharing

(book – 168 pages) Amazon: https://smile.amazon.com/Unlocking-Leadership-Mindtraps-Thrive- Complexity/dp/1503609014

The Systems Thinking Playbook – Meadows and Sweeney
https://redquadrant.libib.com/#4133211X

Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos – Mitchell Waldrop
https://redquadrant.libib.com/#15288900X

Out of Control – Kelly
https://redquadrant.libib.com/#21553244X

Systems Thinkers – Ramage and Shipp
https://redquadrant.libib.com/#15289113X

Systems Approaches to Management – Michael Jackson
https://smile.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/030646506X/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i1

Systems Approaches to Managing Change – Reynolds and Howell
https://redquadrant.libib.com/#15289094X

Systems Thinking for Social Change – Stroh
https://redquadrant.libib.com/#60844152X

The Systems Approach and Its Enemies – West Churchman
https://redquadrant.libib.com/#21553177X

The Brain of the Firm – Beer
https://smile.amazon.co.uk/Brain-Firm-2e-Classic-Beer/dp/047194839X

Safety Differently: Human Factors for a New Era, Second Edition – Dekker
https://redquadrant.libib.com/#44506149X

Strong Towns – Marohn
https://smile.amazon.co.uk/Strong-Towns-Bottom-Up-Revolution-Prosperity-ebook/dp/B07YGC4K4V

via IFORS’ Operational Research Hall of Fame 
C. West Churchman – Mason – 2004 – International Transactions in Operational Research – Wiley Online Library

IFORS’ Operational Research Hall of Fame
C. West Churchman

via A Philosophical Look at System Dynamics – YouTube

From their newsletter:

Dear Academy Community, During this time of disruption, we are all finding different ways to cope. We felt that now would be a good time to reach out to some of our Academy Fellows, Board Members, Advisors and Faculty for their reflections; how are they feeling? what are they finding useful during this time? how are they navigating through this global pandemic? This newsletter is a collection of thoughts, personal reflections and updates from several members of the Academy community. We’d love to hear from more of you – please reach out to us at anytime. With an open heart, Darcy, Ginger, Marta, Sarah, Kindle and LeAnne Academy Programs Director, Marta Ceroni, has been collaborating with 30 capacity builders in the field of systems change to explore what it really takes to ‘do’ systems thinking. Their recently published report, Convening The Capacity Builders, aims to support systems leaders around the world. It covers key emerging themes in the field, including healing systems, centering equity, learning about learning and responding to disruptive change. “Systems change is emerging as a pathway of hopeful action across the world. Governments, NGOs, and the private sector are buzzing about the need for it. But what does it take to really do it, what’s needed to realize the promise of this field, and how might we best support emerging and practicing system leaders globally?” Read the full report here If you’re interested in connecting to reflect on key emerging themes in the field of systems change, the group is hosting a webinar on May 13. 2020, 11:00AM Eastern Time, USA. More info Now is the time for systems thinking

via Webinar: Building Capacity for Systems Change – Academy for Systems Change

via Adult Development and the COVID Crisis – Academy for Systems Change

Adult Development and the COVID Crisis

Adult Development and the COVID Crisis

Leading developmental theorists, Robert Kegan and Lisa Lahey recently hosted a webinar on “Adult Development and the COVID Crisis” and have made this resource available to a wider community in the hope it may add to the healing/helping energy this extraordinary situation has unleashed.

They have made it available in several ways, and we’d like to share with our entire Academy community:

1. It is available as a 2-hour interactive program that you can do with colleagues, friends, students, and/or clients. To view instructions for running this program, click here, and you can access the program video in its entirety by clicking this link.

Alternatively, they have divided the video into two half-hour pieces, for viewing separately or consecutively:

1. How can we better stay connected to ourselves and to others in a time of crisis?

“All of this starts with awareness, noticing our feelings, our reactions. That is what makes it possible for us to have a relationship to those feelings. By contrast, when we are unaware of our feelings, they are in charge…Noticing our feelings, though, means we can step aside from them, to whatever degree, and we can look at them…And that move is what animates all developmental shifts, no matter how small.” – Dr. Lisa Lahey

2. How can we better realize the transformational potential of this global pandemic?

“We were a sick world before the virus. The systems which we have created — which in many ways have been an enormous advance to human evolution — those systems are clearly not able to solve our current problems. The virus has the potential to show us even more deeply that we are first of all members of one single vulnerable species just trying to make its way on one single fragile planet. The more that we come to experience that, the bigger is the transformative potential–that these systems, valuable though they may be, are just constructions.”  – Dr. Robert Kegan

Many thanks to Lisa Lahey and Bob Kegan for making these resources easily accessible for everyone. Please feel free to pass this on to whomever you think may benefit.

via Adult Development and the COVID Crisis – Academy for Systems Change

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Please go to the excellent

Just Practicing by Helen Wilding

for more

via Developing my thinking about the development of thinking | Just Practicing

Developing my thinking about the development of thinking

Posted on June 20, 2013

Just recently I’ve read a couple of articles.  They are both about the development of thinking in an educational context.  One is about developing critical thinking (Moon, 2005) and the other is about the teaching of systems concepts  and therefore of interest to the development of systems thinking (Salner 1986).

Both of the articles use theories of adult cognitive development or epistemological development as the foundation for their arguments.  In short, they argue that critical thinking (Moon article) and understanding of systems concepts (Salner article) are not possible until the adult has reached a certain stage of development and have integrated particular epistemological assumptions into their world views.  Both articles are written from a ‘pedagogical’ perspective so go onto discuss what educators can do to create the conditions where post-18 students can progress the development of their thinking – even if they are not consciously aware of it.

The first theory is by Kitchener (1983) and is explained in the Salner article – although I have come across it before in Bawden’s work on critical social learning systems.  Kitchener’s theory is about levels of cognitive processing.  There are three levels – level one is the cognitive task of thinking itself.  Level two is referred to as metacognition – the types of tasks used to think about and monitor the quality of thinking whilst you are doing it.  The third level is referred to as ‘epistemic cognition’ – it is about thinking epistemically – thinking about the foundations of thought.

If I think about my own experience of epistemic cognition, it isn’t something that came naturally to me.  First of all of course you don’t know you don’t know… then I came across a language to help me reflect I could understand it more.  One of the key points I remember is learning about the difference between positivist, post-positivist and post-modernist research and their different epistemological stances – so getting the language from the ‘philosophy of science’ helped me to think about and have conversations about my views and in the process develop them.

Moving onto epistemological development – the changes that occur at Kitchener’s level three whether you are conscious of it or not – the Moon article draws predominantly on the work of Magolda which identifies four domains of ‘knowing’.

• absolute knowing – the stance that knowledge is absolute and certain.
• transitional knowing – doubts creep in about the certainty of knowledge
• independent knowing – recognise that knowledge is uncertain but cope with this by believing everyone has a right to their own opinions
• contextual knowing – knowledge is no longer absolute, it is constructed and is understood according to what best fits the context

The Salner article on the other hand, predominantly draws on the work of Perry.  Perry identified nine positions through which a student moves developmentally but these can be reduced to three main stages.

• dualism – makes a clear distinction between self and the external world where ‘knowledge’ lies.  Differences in points of view accommodated by seeing right or wrong.
• multiplicity – the plural nature of the social context creates pressure to recognise many ‘truths’.  Differences in points of view accommodated by ‘you have your way, I have mine’
• contextual relativism – realisation that context important in defining ‘truth’.  Knowledge is part of your relationship with the world.

There are clearly synergies between the work of Magolda and the work of Perry.  And I also found Moon’s argument about critical thinking and Salner’s argument about understanding systems concepts very similiar – that these are not possible until a student has reached contextual knowing/contextual relativism.  If a student has not developed their epistemology to recognise pluralism and relativism then it is simply not possible to appreciate and appraise multiple partial perspectives to reach a judgement or conclusion (critical thinking) or to practice epistemological and methodological pluralism and be conscious of your choices in messy situations (key competence of systems practitioner).

As I’ve been writing, I’ve realised I’ve come across another perspective related to this issue of developing thinking but this one comes under the heading of ‘wisdom’.  In TU811 People stream, we were introduced to the work of Baltes and Staudinger (2000) who have developed five criteria for wisdom.

The first two criteria are relevant to any kind of expertise – factual knowledge (know about) and procedural knowledge (know how).  The other three are more relevant to wisdom.  They are:

• lifespan contextualism – awareness of an event’s unique context and history
• relativism of values and life priorities – recognising and respecting different views held on this
• recognition of and management of uncertainty – realising how little you know – but still coping!

Looking at these criteria for wisdom in the light of Magolda’s and Perry’s theories, makes me think that ‘wisdom’ too would not be possible if an adult has not developed contextual knowing/contextual relativism.

So what?

When you get a group of systems thinkers into a real or virtual room (what would be the collective known for a group of systems thinkers – an emergence, perhaps?) it isn’t long before the talk turns to “how do we get others (in our workplaces, in society) to ‘get it’?”  We talk of using systems approaches, we talk of more formal introduction of systems ideas, we talk of ‘modelling’ through what we ourselves do or say.

But what if, those who don’t ‘get it’, haven’t had the necessary experiences (in education or elsewhere) to develop contextual knowing/contextual relativism?  Salner’s observations of students operating in dualistic or multiplistic stage (symptoms include getting more stuck in systemic thinking and falling back on the non-systemic; being more likely to reduce complexity to familiar categories; and, being more likely to regard their perspective as the way it is) seem rather too familiar.  So these theories of epistemological development are important beyond the educational setting – to managers as well as educators; to all staff (including managers) as well as students; to organisational development as well as educational culture; to personal development as well as curricula development.

It all seems a bit overwhelming!

References

Moon, Jenny (2005) ‘We seek it here… a new perspective on the elusive activity of critical thinking: a theoretical and practical approach’, [online] Available from: http://escalate.ac.uk/downloads/2041.pdf.

Salner, Marcia (1986) ‘Adult cognitive and epistemological development in systems education’, Systems Research, 3(4), pp. 225–232.

Baltes, P.B. and Staudinger, U.M. (2000) ‘Wisdom: a metaheuristic (pragmatic) to orchestrate mind and virtue toward excellence’, American Psychologist, 55(1), pp 122-126

Go to the source for a lot more good stuff Developing my thinking about the development of thinking | Just Practicing

Please comment on this on the LinkedIn article (not here), where I have also commented.

via How to Make Systems Thinking a More Natural Act | LinkedIn

How to Make Systems Thinking a More Natural Act

• Published on May 2, 2020

Catarina von Maydell

Helping leaders & teams create strategic, sustainable innovation & change.

14 articles Following

To address the many difficult challenges we face from local to organizational to global levels, we need to approach the challenges differently. This includes leveraging systems thinking, design thinking, complexity thinking, agile approaches, etc, etc. However, this “deep thinking” is not easy, and it is currently not a natural process. But we can make it easier, and we can make it something that is much more natural to business people and other people who need to solve complex problems.

This article recaps the ST-TO+ presentation and the presentation that triggered it, and then provides insights that might help us understand how we can make systems thinking+ a more ‘natural act’.

To understand “Why Deep Thinking is Not a Natural Act”, Srikanth Ramanujam used experiential exercises and a range of resources at Systems Thinking+ Toronto to show some different ways people think and how automatic cognitive processes (Daniel Kahneman’s fast thinking) can interfere with the deeper, considered, slower thinking. The presentation concluded with a discussion of:

1. How we can leverage the processes of scientific process and iterative systems thinking steps (including mapping) to think more deeply.
2. How the Cynefin model can help us recognize the type of thinking we probably need to do based on the situation. Cynefin recognizes situations can be:

• ordered (situations are simple or complicated; best or good practices can address challenges), or
•  unordered (situations are complex or chaotic; these situations require much more observation, exploration, experimentation and learn-as-you-go).

Srikanth’s presentation was triggered by Professor Ricardo Valerdi’s “Why/When Systems Thinking is Not a Natural Act” video and academic paper. Valerdi writes ST is not a natural act because

our systems “favor mechanisms tuned to dealing with immediate surface features of challenges.”

Our education and business systems’ “mechanistic/reductionist” approaches to decision-making and acting “inhibit” the development of the cognitive processes necessary for ST.

continues and with comments in source: How to Make Systems Thinking a More Natural Act | LinkedIn

via Pandemic Luhman | Zenodo

(And: Coronavirus Disease Research Community – COVID-19 

https://zenodo.org/communities/covid-19/?page=1&size=20)

May 2, 2020

Working paper Open Access 

Pandemic Luhman

Paul Marie Boulanger;  Andrea Saltelli

In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, important transformations are taking place while a dense veil of uncertainty clouds the way out of the present predicaments. This short, impromptu comment, based on the theories of German sociologist Niklas Luhmann, plays the game of “What would Luhmann have said”, without the ambition to predict actual outcomes, but just as an exercise of interrogating his theory. Of course, Luhmann’s own brilliance would have considerably helped.

A new initiative I’m launching. Please join if you are interested in or produce citizen and community outcomes (UK focus).

via The days after – a learning community to build back better – PSTA

THE DAYS AFTER – A LEARNING COMMUNITY TO BUILD BACK BETTER

Looks like a great initiative, and I highly recommend the Three Horizons model at this time.

We are using it in https://www.publicservicetransformation.org/2020/04/the-days-after-a-learning-community-to-build-back-better/, too

via Week 1-2: Three Horizons – Collective Leadership for Scotland

Collective Leadership for Scotland

What does it take to lead in times like these?

Week 1-2: Three Horizons

Introduction to Week 1-2

We are launching the first of our themed “One thing at a time” weeks. We will be taking some time to reflect and focus on a theory or approach that is central to the Collective Leadership work. For the next couple of weeks we’ll be focusing particularly on Three Horizons. This work has been produced in collaboration with Graham Leicester from International Futures Forum.

The idea is that you can take this at your own pace and delve as deeply as you wish. You might simply want to read up a bit more, watch some YouTube clips to help you to get to grips with Three Horizons framework; you might want to take a bit more time and get involved in practising using Three Horizons and you may wish to participate in the offer of the 2 online live workshops; you might want to share a virtual dialogue walk with someone to talk it through in a bit more detail one to one. The level of involvement is up to you.

You can access all materials down below. Please do complete if you can the short scanning survey which we hope will provide a useful picture of how Scotland is changing now and might change in the future under the influence of the pandemic. You can sign up for the survey and for the follow-up online workshops below.

Video 1: Introduction to The Three Horizons

A short introduction by Kate Raworth (author of Doughnut Economics) on how to use Three Horizons thinking to frame the transition to a regenerative and distributive economy, including suggestions for workshop questions (video: August 2018)

Blog by Graham Leicester: Scanning the Covid-19 Landscape of Change

These are powerful times.  We face immediate and acute challenges alongside the inevitability of long-term shifts in patterns of living.  Systems, all systems it seems, are in transition.  When they come through this experience many will be radically changed.  We are embarked on an extraordinary learning journey.

Three Horizons (see below) is a simple framework for reading this landscape and keeping track of how it might evolve over time.

There is a flavour of Three Horizons already in the tendency to describe the journey through the pandemic in three phases:  from response, through recovery to renewal, for example.  Or, as others have it, ‘now, next, beyond’. Most of these three phase descriptions might just as easily be represented as three time horizons – short, medium and long term.  That is how the original Three Horizons framework made popular by McKinsey’s in the early 2000s was intended to be understood.

The framework becomes much more powerful, however, and more useful for anyone involved in the conscious pursuit of social change, if the three horizons are understood not as time horizons but as three qualities of the future in the present. The framework then provides a space to appreciate:  the unstable patterns of the past and the strains they are now coming under (H1), a sense of the opportunities for innovation and change that are accelerating all around us (H2), and also the potential for the present moment to act as a portal (to use Arundhati Roy’s language) to a very different future, founded on different values (H3).

There is always a dominant pattern.  This is the first horizon (H1), ‘business as usual’.  Its quality is managerial.  We rely on H1 systems being stable and reliable.  But as the world changes, or is disrupted for example by a pandemic, so aspects of business as usual begin to feel out of place or no longer fit for purpose.  Eventually ‘business as usual’ will always be superseded by new ways of doing things.

The third horizon – H3 – emerges as the long-term successor to business as usual.  It grows from fringe activity in the present that introduces completely new ways of doing things but which turn out to be much better fitted to the world that is emerging than the dominant H1 systems.  Its quality is hopeful – full of hope.

The second horizon – H2 – is a pattern of transition activities and innovations, people trying things out in response to the ways in which the landscape is changing.  Its quality is entrepreneurial.  Some of these innovations will be absorbed into the H1 systems to improve them and to prolong their life (we call this ‘sustaining innovation’ or ‘H2 minus’) while some will pave the way for the emergence of the radically different H3 systems (this is ‘transformative innovation’ or ‘H2 plus’).

The future emerges from the playing out of these three patterns of activity, the three horizons, over time.

IFF has been using Three Horizons as a scanning framework to capture how these three patterns and the interaction between them is changing week by week during the pandemic in a number of sectors, capturing learning as we go. What are those at the forefront of the action noticing about the frailties and failings of H1?  What are the innovations springing up in H2?  What are the signs of hope that out of this crisis a better world – H3 – is possible?

Many assume that there will come a time, after the immediate response phase and as we enter ‘recovery’, when we will get to take a look around at what has happened and decide which changes to keep, which to discontinue, what to retrieve from the past that we need to revive and so on. The default set of assumptions underpinning those decisions will come from the past.  We may keep something because ‘it works’ – but all we know is that it might have worked in the past and did work in the pressure cooker environment of the crisis.  Will it work in the future?  Is it an aspect of the future we aspire to create?  Those are different questions.

In other words, without a sense of where we want to go, our own third horizon, we will inevitably – and largely unconsciously – privilege sustaining over transformative innovation.  We will not realise the full potential of this moment for significant change.

That is why it is important to notice the H3 activity already manifest in the present.  These are the actions that inspire and encourage us, give us hope, demonstrate that there are rich human values that can be expressed in heart-warming action.  These are the seeds of the future to which we aspire.  Bill Sharpe, in his book Three Horizons, calls H3 ‘the patterning of hope’.

Scanning using the Three Horizons framework will give us a good picture of our starting position:  Where are we?  What is the nature of the landscape we are in and that we might encounter ahead?  And also, in the form of these glimpses of H3 in the present, a good sense of our direction of travel:  Where do we want to go?  What are the values we want to privilege through the transition?  What is the third horizon pattern we aspire to realise in the future?

IFF has developed a set of resources for guiding us through this journey of system transition in a time of great uncertainty and change.  It includes taking notice of some of the archetypal dynamics we are likely to encounter along the way, ways in which the three horizons often interact with each other over time.

The Smooth Transition is a managed and gradual process, without significant shocks, discontinuities or resistance.  More common are the other variants, all of which we can see in play just now.

Collapse and Renewal is characterised by increasing resources poured into an unsustainable H1 pattern, which eventually fails and gives way to a new H3.  We see this dynamic at present, for example, in the huge investment in keeping the existing economy on life support in the hope of ‘recovering’ it.

Capture and Extension involves the H1 pattern absorbing innovation in order to extend its life, without any significant change in the underlying system.  This might be seen at present in moving the existing school curriculum online without questioning its continuing relevance.

Investment Bubble occurs when investors (of time, money, attention, other resources) act as a herd in deciding that ‘this is the next thing’.  This leads to over-investment in a single idea that cannot in the end satisfy all its backers.  The recent paper Exit Through the App Store about our investment in the idea of a tracking app to get us out of lockdown points to an H2 bubble likely to burst.

There is a useful table exploring what the wise H1 manager and the determined H3 visionary should do if they become aware of these dynamics.  It turns out that in all cases the watchword for the H1 manager is to maintain diversity (always have options), and for the H3 visionary to maintain integrity (hold to the vision, don’t compromise it).

To return to the beginning, the first step is to get a sense of our starting position – to map the new landscape appearing around us.  A simple way to get started is to distribute a short online sampling survey, ideally repeated at intervals, to tap into what people are noticing and how they are feeling as the patterns shift around them. If you want an example, please try the survey we have set up below.

By mapping the landscape in this way, when the time comes to take stock, to decide what to keep, what to stop, how to move into recovery and renewal, those decisions will be informed by an explicit view of the future, the values we wish it to embody, and the evidence from the present that such a world is indeed possible.

 

via Week 1-2: Three Horizons – Collective Leadership for Scotland