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New research explores the thermodynamics of off-equilibrium systems | Santa Fe Institute

New research explores the thermodynamics of off-equilibrium systems

Mira the star (Image: NASA)

NOVEMBER 10, 2020

Arguably, almost all truly intriguing systems are ones that are far away from equilibrium — such as stars, planetary atmospheres, and even digital circuits. But, until now, systems far from thermal equilibrium couldn’t be analyzed with conventional thermodynamics and statistical physics.

When physicists first explored thermodynamics and statistical physics during the 1800s, and through the 1900s, they focused on analyzing physical systems that are at or near equilibrium. Conventional thermodynamics and statistical physics have also focused on macroscopic systems, which contain few, if any, explicitly distinguished subsystems.

In a paper published in the journal Physical Review Letters, SFI Professor David Wolpert presents a new hybrid formalism to overcome all of these limitations.

Fortunately, at the turn of the millennium, “a formalism now known as nonequilibrium statistical physics was developed,” says Wolpert. “It applies to systems that are arbitrarily far away from equilibrium and of any size.”

Nonequilibrium statistical physics is so powerful that it has resolved one of the deepest mysteries about the nature of time: how does entropy evolve within an intermediate regime? This is the space between the macroscopic world, where the second law of thermodynamics tells us that it must always increase, and the microscopic world where it can’t ever change.

We now know it’s only the expected entropy of a system that can’t decrease with time. “There’s always a non-zero probability that any particular sample of the dynamics of a system will result in decreasing entropy — and the probability of shrinking entropy grows as the system gets smaller,” he says.

At the same time that this revolution in statistical physics was occurring, major advances involving so-called graphical models were being made within the machine learning community.

In particular, the formalism of Bayesian networks was developed, which provides a method to specify systems with many subsystems that interact probabilistically with each other. Bayes nets can be used to formally describe the synchronous evolution of the elements of a digital circuit — fully accounting for noise within that evolution.

Wolpert combined these advances into a hybrid formalism, which is allowing him to explore thermodynamics of off-equilibrium systems that have many explicitly distinguished subsystems coevolving according to a Bayes net.

As an example of the power of this new formalism, Wolpert derived results showing the relationship between three quantities of interest in studying nanoscale systems like biological cells: the statistical precision of any arbitrarily defined current within the subsystem (such as the probabilities that the currents differ from their average values), the heat generated by running the overall Bayes net composed of those subsystems, and the graphical structure of that Bayes net.

“Now we can start to analyze how the thermodynamics of systems ranging from cells to digital circuits depend on the network structures connecting the subsystems of those systems,” says Wolpert.

Read the paper, “Uncertainty relations and fluctuation theorems for Bayes nets,” in Physical Review Letters(November 10, 2020)

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New research explores the thermodynamics of off-equilibrium systems | Santa Fe Institute

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Transcript of W. Brian Arthur (Part 1) on The History of Complexity Economics | COMPLEXITY

W. Brian Arthur (Part 1) on The History of Complexity Economics

JANUARY 8TH, 2020 | 57:03 | E13SHAREEMBEDRECASTSUBSCRIBEDOWNLOAD MP3EPISODE DETAILS / TRANSCRIPT

Michael: So Brian, it’s a pleasure to meet you here amidst the complexity.

Brian: Thank you. Delighted to be here.

Michael: I think I’d like to take this conversation in three parts. One, kind of looking back at the history of the development of complexity economics and the argument for it that you’ve put forward in a book and in numerous papers. And then to dig into the actual mechanisms involved and to explore some of the ideas that you get into in The Nature of Technology.

Michael: And then you have a 2017 article for McKinsey that I thought was really fascinating in terms of looking forward into the shape that the new economics systems are taking. So if that sounds good to you…

Brian: It sounds great.

Michael: Awesome. So you were there at the beginning of the Santa Fe Institute’s articulation of complexity economics. And I’m curious, what brought that together in the first place, and what got you involved and what you saw, you and the other people involved saw as the need that you were addressing at the time.

Brian: Right. In 1987, there was a famous meeting held here at the Santa Fe Institute in September, and it was decided that about 10 scientists and 10 economists would be brought together by Phil Anderson, who’s a Nobel prize winning physicist, David Pines, very eminent physicist, and Kenneth Arrow, Nobel economist, and they brought 10 of us together. The science group included luminaries like John Holland, very famous these days, David Ruelle mathematician, and Stu Kauffman and others. And on the economics side you had Larry Summers who went on to be president of Harvard, Tom Sargent, who in the future would get a Nobel in economics, and others including myself.

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Transcript of W. Brian Arthur (Part 1) on The History of Complexity Economics | COMPLEXITY

Please join us: http://bit.ly/BBBAfterShock

Learning never stops: the days after – a learning community to build back better – our Government After Shock event on November 17 – PSTA

What can public services do, in the time of COVID, to nurture a better future?

Join us and we will live it out together!

In the heart of the first lockdown, I set up ‘a learning community to build back better in the days after’.

A community which swelled to 120 people in the UK and internationally who really care about the role public services play in the lives of people and communities.

Our hundred-day journey went from confronting the true complexity of the challenges we face, through exploring possible futures – depressing! And on to looking at the possible futures we *liked* and that might make a difference.

We ended in August, with our own manifesto – about what

*we* needed to be and do to contribute to that better future.

And next week, Nov 17, 1-4pm UK time, we reconvene, as part of day one of the OECD Observatory of Public Sector Innovation (OPSI) #GovAfterShock two-day event.

The challenges continue. This is not grand policy or shoulda-would-coulda. This is about a small group of concerned people working out how to make a difference.

Please join us: http://bit.ly/BBBAfterShock

What would *you* ask people involved at the ground level of public services to help to change?

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Learning never stops: the days after – a learning community to build back better – our Government After Shock event on November 17 – PSTA

A free online workshop to explore: https://www.palladio.net/introducing-enigma-the-little-black-box/

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Meeting Registration – Zoom

Introducing Enigma – The Little Black Box. Basell Complexity Meetup

Description

In the last months I have created a little computer game which you can use to learn, and teach, about how decisions become fundamentally different when things become complex. It is based on a thought experiment by Heinz von Foerster, the Non-Trivial-Machine. In this meetup we will play the game, reflect our experiences, and explore the history of the concept and how we can use it to convince others to stop treating complex issues as if they were trivial.Time

Dec 2, 2020 06:00 PM in Zurich

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Meeting Registration – Zoom

If, like me, you get confused between entropy in terms of information content, and entropy in the medium/signal transmission, Harish Joe can help 🙂

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Online calculator: Shannon Entropy

Shannon Entropy

This online calculator computes Shannon entropy for a given event probability table and for a given messageperson_outlineTimurschedule7 years ago

In information theory, entropy is a measure of the uncertainty in a random variable. In this context, the term usually refers to the Shannon entropy, which quantifies the expected value of the message’s information.
Claude E. Shannon introduced the formula for entropy in his 1948 paper “A Mathematical Theory of Communication.”

Minus is used because for values less than 1, and logarithm is negative. However, since

,

formula can be expressed as

Expression

is also called an uncertainty or surprise, the lower the probability , i.e.  → 0, the higher the uncertainty or the potential surprise, i.e.  → ∞, for the outcome .

In this case, the formula expresses the mathematical expectation of uncertainty, which is why information entropy and information uncertainty can be used interchangeably.

This calculator computes Shannon entropy for given probabilities of events

Shannon Entropy

Event probabilitiesCalculation precisionDigits after the decimal point: 2Entropy, bits0.81CALCULATE

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Online calculator: Shannon Entropy

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The Joshua Sutherland Podcast – Joshua Sutherland

The Joshua Sutherland Podcast

Cutting edge ideas from the world’s leading systems engineering experts

Some recent topics include: Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE), INCOSE, Project Management, System Architecture, Systems Level Design, Systems Engineering, Engineering Management & Teamwork.

Subscribe

Subscribe with the following (or wherever you listen to podcasts with the RSS Feed): 
Apple Podcasts / iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, Player.FM, Listen Notes, Tune In, Google Podcasts, YouTube

Highlighted episodes:

All episodes:

• Podcast 006 – Mats Larsson – The Blind Guardians of Ignorance: Covid-19, Sustainability, and Our Vulnerable Future2020-10-27A handbook for change leaders, young and old. The Blind Guardians of…
• Podcast 005 – CONSEQUENCES of COVID-19 on SYSTEMS ENGINEERING. Asking the Experts.2020-05-19Show notes: In this episode we are going to be exploring the…
• Podcast 004 – Ricardo Viana Vargas – Brightline Project Management Institute (PMI)2018-03-20Brightline Project Management Institute (PMI) Show notes Interview with Ricardo Viana Vargas…
• Podcast 003 – Heinz Stoewer – Space Systems Engineer & INCOSE Past President2018-03-10Space Systems Engineer & INCOSE Past President Space Systems Engineer & INCOSE…
• Podcast 002 – Hillary Sillitto – Architecting Systems: Concepts, Principles and Practice2018-02-16Architecting Systems: Concepts, Principles and Practice. Architecting Systems: Concepts, Principles and Practice.…
• Podcast 001 – Bryan Moser – Teamwork & Socio-Technical Systems Engineering. MIT and University of Tokyo2018-02-02Teamwork & Socio-Technical Systems Engineering. MIT System Design and Management (SDM) and…

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The Joshua Sutherland Podcast – Joshua Sutherland

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Desafío de la complejidad en los Sistemas de Salud. Registro, Mar, 24/11/2020 a las 17:00 | Eventbrite

NOV 24

Desafío de la complejidad en los Sistemas de Salud.

Gratis

Información sobre el evento

Webinars sobre Ergonomía y Sistemas de Salud en América Latina. Esta sesión se centrará en el concepto de sistemas en los sistemas de salud

Acerca de este evento

— Serie de webinars 2020-2021 Organizado por RELAESA —

En esta sesión se presentará el concepto de sistemas complejos y las razones por las que el sector de la salud debe adoptar este paradigma para hacer frente a los desafíos contemporáneos.

Esta sesión se llevará a cabo en inglés.

(Se solicita a los participantes que vean el video publicado en la parte inferior de esta página antes de la sesión).

Ponentes:

Thomas Jun, PhD, C.ErgHF Profesor titular de diseño de sistemas socio-técnicos en la Universidad de Loughborough (Reino Unido) y Ergonomista colegiado y especialista en factores humanos. Es miembro cofundador de un grupo de investigación de factores humanos y sistemas complejos.

Leopoldo Sánchez Cantú, MD, MSc, PhD. Profesor de Dinámica de Sistemas de la Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano (Bogotá, Colombia). Su interés de investigación son los sistemas complejos en las ciencias sociales y el pensamiento y diseño de sistemas para el cambio social. Es miembro de RELAESA.

— Webinar Series 2020-2021 Organised by RELAESA —

This session will introduce the concept of complex systems and reasons behind the healthcare sector should adopt this paradigm to cope with contemporary challenges.

This session will be held in English.

(Participants are requested to see the video posted at the bottom of this page before the session).

Speakers:

Thomas Jun, PhD, C.ErgHF Senior Lecturer in socio-technical systems design at Loughborough University (UK) and a Chartered Ergonomist and Human Factors Specialist. He is a co-founding member of a Human Factors and Complex Systems Research Group.

Leopoldo Sánchez Cantú, MD, MSc, PhD. Lecturer in Systems Dynamics at the Jorge Tadeo Lozano University (Bogotá, Colombia). His research interest is complex systems in social sciences and systems thinking and design for social change. He is a RELAESA´s member.https://www.youtube.com/embed/Qt5hyQtOLbg

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Desafío de la complejidad en los Sistemas de Salud. Registro, Mar, 24/11/2020 a las 17:00 | Eventbrite

Why Students Should Be Taught Systems Thinking Starting In Kindergarten

Nov 9, 2020,04:34pm EST

Why Students Should Be Taught Systems Thinking Starting In Kindergarten – Julia Brodsky

Julia Brodsky

We live in a world of complex, interconnected systems. They range from big corporations and the Earth’s biosphere to social networks and our own bodies. Complex systems have many components that interact with each other in dynamic patterns. They chug along quietly and uneventfully until, one day, they unexpectedly turn our world upside down. Hurricanes and pandemics, elections and market crashes – all inevitable products of complex systems – ceaselessly remind us of our limited understanding of the world. What’s missing is the ability to notice and comprehend the counterintuitive nature of complex systems. This ability, called “systems thinking,” is recognized by educators, scientists and entrepreneurs as one of the most valuable skills for the 21st century.

The concept of systems thinking was introduced several decades ago by the late Jay Forrester of the MIT Sloan School of Management, who founded the field of systems dynamics to describe economic behavior and advance management education. Forrester recognized that systems thinking could, and should, be taught to students starting at an early age. Dr. Tracy Benson, the President and CEO of the Waters Center for Systems Thinking and one of the international leaders in the field of systems thinking education, is helping to implement Forrester’s vision. The Waters Center provides training in habits, strategies, and tools of systems thinking to educators and entrepreneurs around the world. 

A recent longitudinal study conducted by the Waters Center explored the benefits of systems thinking in schools. The study found that systems thinking helped students connect their learning to real-world problems, improve their decision-making, and consider the unintended consequences of their choices. Likewise, a framework for K-12 Science Education developed by the National Academy of Sciences recommends the incorporation of concepts such as “stability and change” and “systems models” into the science syllabus. The framework, which informs state-level educational decisions, draws on the most recent scientific research on the best ways for students to learn science. However, systems thinking has yet to become a backbone for a modern school curriculum.

When it comes to incorporating systems thinking into science education, grade school may be the ideal place to start. Primary school students enjoy discovering interdependencies in the world around them. For example, they may examine the effects of their actions on family and friends and then observe how those actions come back to impact them, often after substantial delays. Older children are eager to learn how remote astronomical events affect life on Earth and how climate change doomed ancient societies. Older children may explore the effects of inadequate healthcare policies on the national economy and education. A variety of tools, from computer simulations to educational video games – which have become widely available in recent years – can provide new opportunities to gently introduce systems thinking concepts.

Enhanced systems thinking has the potential to inform children’s perspectives in all areas of their lives for years to come, from personal relationships and social interactions to business decisions and political involvement. After all, complex systems are all around us. If our role as parents and educators is to prepare our children to thrive in the uncertain and fast-changing future, we may want to focus on systems thinking early on.Check out my website. Julia Brodsky

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Why Students Should Be Taught Systems Thinking Starting In Kindergarten

http://www.iwritewordsgood.com/apl/set.htm

“People say, A Pattern Language changes their lives, by which I think they mean it changes the way they physically organize their lives… What Alexander and his co-authors set out to do was collect and organize the elements that make buildings loved, that make buildings ‘live’. Freed from modernity, they teased out the deep-dwelling ‘pattern language’ that people understand buildings with… Every year some 10,000 copies of this $50 biblical tome are bought, and the number increases yearly.”-Stewart Brand editor, Whole Earth CatalogA Pattern Language is a philosophy of the human use of space and an analysis of what makes humans comfortable in the space they inhabit – city streets, public areas or private rooms.Each pattern starts out with a design challenge, such as:3 City Country Fingers** “Continuous sprawling urbanization destroys life, and makes cities unbearable. But the sheer size of cities is also valuable and potent.”132 Short Passages*  “. . . long, sterile corridors set the scene for everything bad about modern architecture.”134 Zen View* “…If there is a beautiful view, don’t spoil it by building huge windows that gape incessantly at it.”The patterns explore the problem in depth and then state a solution, linking to preceding and concluding patterns that relate to the subject at hand.You and your neighbors can use it as a tool to improve your neighborhood, an individual can use it to design a home or office, and it can also function as a guide in the process of construction.Reading A Pattern Language changed the way I look at the world. It’s the one book I won’t loan to friends, but creating a website made sharing easy. Its linked hierarchy of patterns made it perfect for linking, and clicking from pattern to pattern is more efficient than flipping pages. The web also allowed me to index its 1100 pages. Copyright issues are a concern, so the site is obscured from search engines and shared only with friends and as part of my portfolio.How to use the book:Each page has… 1. An introductory paragraph linking a pattern to the patterns that preceded it. 2. A summary of the problem in bold. 3. The problem’s details, background and manifestations. 4. The solution, in bold. 5. A diagram of the solution. 6. A paragraph linking the smaller patterns which are needed to complete or embellish this pattern. 7. A button to bookmark the page in Internet Explorer, and a reminder for Netscape users.

Choosing a language: 1. Find the pattern that best describes your project and bookmark it. 2. Read the smaller patterns at the end of the first pattern and if they apply to your project, bookmark them. Ignore the preceding patterns unless you have the power to create them. 3. Turn to the next highest pattern in the smaller patterns list that applies, and explore it if it seems relevant. 4. Proceed in this fashion, bookmarking patterns, until you’ve fleshed out the details for your project. You can adjust the sequence by adding your own material where you haven’t found a corresponding pattern and change patterns where you have a truer or more relevant version. Finally, compress the patterns together as densely as possible.Pattern Hierarchies Asterisks indicate the amount of confirming evidence for each pattern. Patterns with two asterisks True invarients. The authors believe it is impossible to solve the problem without shaping the environment according to the pattern given. In these cases the pattern describes a deep, inescapable property of a well-formed environment.Patterns with one asterisk The authors believe they have made progress toward identifying an invariant, but improvement on the solution is possible. In these cases they believe it would be wise to treat the pattern with some disrespect and seek out variants, since there are probably ranges of solutions which are not covered by what has been written.Patterns without asterisks The authors are certain that they have not succeeded in defining a true invariant – and on the contrary there are certainly different ways of solving the problem. In these cases they have still stated a solution to provide the reader with at least one way of solving the problem – but finding the true invariant which lies at the heart of all possible solutions to this problem remains undone.To fully understand the book, read A Pattern Language and its companion volumes, The Timeless Way of Building and The Oregon Experiment.A Pattern Language : Towns, Buildings, Construction by Christopher Alexander, Sara Ishikawa, Murray Silverstein with Max Jacobson, Ingrid Fiksdahl-King, Shlomo Angel. New York, NY: Oxford University Press 1977.

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A System Change Compass: Implementing the European Green Deal in a time of recovery – Club of Rome

A System Change Compass: Implementing the European Green Deal in a time of recovery

OverviewShare this post

“A System Change Compass: Implementing the European Green Deal in a time of recovery”, co-written by The Club of Rome and SYSTEMIQ, with a foreword by President of the Commission Ursula von der Leyen, sets out the guiding principles and systemic orientations to help address barriers to a rapid and successful rollout of the EGD along all dimensions of the European policy sphere.

The European Green Deal (EGD) sets a vision for Europe to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. It is also Europe’s best plan to recover from the Covid-19 crisis by creating a more prosperous, sustainable and resilient economy. But delivering this bold vision requires an equally bold framework for implementation.

Based on the unique Compass framework, the report provides a set of clear policy interventions to redefine prosperity, progress, the metrics used to measure success, governance, leadership and the enabling role of finance. It also identifies over 50 emerging industry “champions” that will drive Europe’s transformation towards a more competitive, resource-efficient economy in line with societal needs. These champions – from urban agriculture to seaweed farming and hydrogen technologies – represent scalable sustainable industries that will form Europe’s economic backbone in a net-zero world.

Recognising that Europe’s environmental, social and health challenges are rooted in the unsustainable use of natural resources, lead authors Sandrine Dixson-Declève, Janez Potočnik and Martin R. Stuchtey demonstrate how radical resource decoupling, dematerialisation and rethinking ownership can lead to human wellbeing and economic resilience.

Download the report here. 

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A System Change Compass: Implementing the European Green Deal in a time of recovery – Club of Rome

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Race-to-Zero Opening Sessions – Club of Rome

Race-to-Zero Opening Sessions

Nov 3, 2020OverviewShare this post

On Monday 9 November 2020 between 9.30-10.30 GMT, The Club of Rome and Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research are joining forces to host the opening session “Systems Transformation” of the Race to Zero Dialogues. With presentations by the hosts Johan Rockström (Director of PIK), Sandrine Dixson-Declève (Co-President of The Club of Rome) and Kate Raworth (Author of Doughnut Economics) as well as a high-level panel discussion, this online event introduces participants to a new recovery, resilience and renewal agenda for people, planet and prosperity driven by systems change. The opening sets the tone for the sectoral dialogues by demonstrating that net-zero is not limited to zero carbon, but ultimately also stand for zero loss of nature, zero pandemics and zero poverty – with the aim to leave our children nothing (#LeaveOurChildren0).

With COP26 postponed, the Race to Zero Dialogues presents an important landmark in our calendars on the road to Glasgow and COP26. This session will mark the start of a ten-day series of virtual dialogues, with the objective to build momentum around the shift to a decarbonised economy ahead of COP26. These dialogues are a part of the UNFCCC’s Race to Zero global campaign, led by the High- Level Climate Champions for Climate Action – Nigel Topping and Gonzalo Muñoz – and aim to raise the ambition for a Decade of Action.

Complete programme for 9 November opening sessions:

• 9:00h-9:30GMT      Opening words Race to Zero Dialogues: Nigel Topping and Gonzalo Muñoz, High Level Champions for Climate Action
• 9:30h-9:45GMT      Emerging from Emergency: The Case for Systems Change: Johan Rockström, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research & Sandrine Dixson-Declève, Co-President of The Club of Rome
• 9:45h-9:50GMT      Systems Change in Practice: Kate Raworth, Author of Doughnut Economics, Senior Research Associate at Oxford University’s Environmental Change Institute
• 9:50h-9:55GMT      Pre-recorded video messages: Chief Raoni Metuktire of the Kayapo people, Climate Activist
• 9:55-10:20GMT      Live Reflections: Importance of Accelerating Systems Change and Action:
  • • Wanjira Mathai, Vice-President and Regional Director for Africa, World Resources Institute
    • Cardinal Peter Turkson, Prefect, Dicastery for the Promotion of Integral Human Development
    • Sheela Patel, Commissioner, Global Commission for Adaptation
    • Luvuyo Madasa, Executive Director, Re Imagine South Africa
    • Moderator: Adélaïde Charlier, Co-Founder, Youth for Climate Belgium
• 10:20-10:25GMT    Pre-recorded video messages: Christiana Figueres, Founder of Global Optimism
• 10:25-10:30GMT   Closing Reflections: The Case for Systems Transformation (Climate Action & Health: The Convergence of Tipping Points): Sir Andy Haines, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine & Joy Phumaphi, Executive Secretary of the African Leaders Malaria Alliance – Co-Chairs of the Pathfinder Commission
• 10:30-11:30GMT    Keynote opening of the Climate & Health Dialogue: The necessary steps to achieve a healthy, equitable recovery from COVID-19 and drive a rapid decarbonisation of the world economy: World Health Organisation, partners and invited guests.

The audience may register for access to the Zoom webinar or watch the opening session live via YouTube.

For more information about the programme click here.

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Race-to-Zero Opening Sessions – Club of Rome

#bbcideas #fractals #science How fractals can help you understand the universe | BBC Ideas 38,310 views•28 Nov 2019 781 16 SHARE SAVE BBC Ideas 200K subscribers SUBSCRIBED What is a fractal, and how can fractals help us understand the universe? Classic examples of fractals in nature are broccoli and snowflakes. They can offer a fascinating explanation for how the world works! Written by Brandon Pestano, animated by Christopher Brooks. Subscribe to BBC Ideas 👉 https://bbc.in/2F6ipav ——————————————————————————- Do you have a curious mind? You’re in the right place. Our aim on BBC Ideas is to feed your curiosity, to open your mind to new perspectives, and to leave you that little bit smarter. So dive in. Let us know what you think. And make sure to subscribe! 👉https://bbc.in/2F6ipav Visit our website to see all of our videos: https://www.bbc.com/ideas And follow BBC Ideas on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bbcideas #bbcideas #fractals #science SHOW LESS

How fractals can help you understand the universe | BBC Ideas – YouTube

https://www.edstraw.com/category/blog/ and

The Hidden Power – Hosted by Ed Straw,Philip Tottenham

The Hidden Power

Why doesn’t government work?

Is it the politicians, the civil servants, the political parties?

Or is it the system in which they all operate?

The Hidden Power goes behind the headlines and the sporting spectacle of modern politicking to find the real villain.

This series of six podcasts, broadcast weekly from October 10th, provides both critique and answers.

Good government is entirely possible but not in its current guise.

Hosted by Ed Straw, former chair of Demos – the cross-party think-tank on democracy, and Philip Tottenham.

Copyright Ed Straw and Philip TottenhamHosted with ❤ by Acast

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The Hidden Power – Hosted by Ed Straw,Philip Tottenham

see also: https://www.edstraw.com/category/blog/