Thursday 25th March from 15:00 -16:30  CCSS Societal Discussion #11: The ‘endo-exo’ problem in complex systems (ecology, earthquakes, financial volatility, epileptic seizures…) On Thursday afternoon (15.00-16.30) we will be hosting our 11th Societal Discussion with Prof. Didier Sornette (ETH Zurich) Link to Webinar (Thursday 25th March at 15:00) >> >>

CCSS Societal Discussion #11: The ‘Endo-exo’ Problem in Complex Systems

Thursday 25th March from 15:00 -16:30 CCSS Societal Discussion #11: The ‘endo-exo’ problem in complex systems (ecology, earthquakes, financial volatility, epileptic seizures…)On Thursday afternoon (15.00-16.30) we will be hosting our 11th Societal Discussion with Prof. Didier Sornette (ETH Zurich)Link to Webinar (Thursday 25th March at 15:00) >> >>Keynote speaker: Prof. Didier Sornette Didier Sornette is Professor on the Chair of Entrepreneurial Risks in the Department of Management, Technology and Economics at ETH Zurich. He also holds a position at the Swiss Finance Institute, and several other departments at ETH Zurich (Physics, Earth Sciences). Prof. Sornette is a founding member of the Risk Center at ETH Zurich and has published 500+ research papers and 7 books. In 2008, he founded the Financial Crisis Observatory to diagnose and predict financial bubbles. His research focuses on the predictability and control of crises and extreme events in complex systems with particular focus on financial bubbles, crashes, earthquake physics and geophysics, the dynamics of success on social networks and the complex system approach to medicine towards the diagnostic of systemic instabilitiesPresentation Overview  The ‘endo-exo’ problem in complex systems (ecology, earthquakes, financial volatility, epileptic seizures…) Abstract: The “endo-exo” problem — i.e., decomposing system activity into exogenous and endogenous parts — lies at the heart of statistical identification in many fields of science. E.g., consider the problem of determining if an earthquake is a mainshock or aftershock, or if a surge in the popularity of a youtube video is because it is “going viral”, or simply due to high activity across the platform. The “endo-exo” problem is also at the heart of a general description of the dynamics of out-of-equilibrium complex systems generalising the fluctuation-susceptibility theorem. There will be 45-minute presentation, followed by a 45-min Q&A.

Upcoming Events 18/03/2021 (Start time – 16:00) CCSS Meeting #39: Scaling in Sociopolitical Complexity in traditional Human Societies  20/04//2021 CCSS Complexaton Finale

Meeting Registration – Zoom

Cranfield Webinar Series on Complexity and Strategy

Critical Systems Thinking and the Management of Complexity

Speaker: Professor Michael C. Jackson, University of Hull & Systems Research Ltd.

Description: This talk discusses the nature of complexity, the development of systems thinking, the emergence of critical systems thinking, and how to conduct interventions on the basis of critical systems practice. The world has become increasingly networked and unpredictable. Leaders of international bodies such as the UN, OECD, UNESCO and WHO, and of major business, public sector, charitable, and professional organizations, have all declared systems thinking an essential leadership skill for managing the complexity of the interrelated economic, social, and environmental issues they face. Systems thinkers have developed different methodologies attuned to different aspects of complexity; examples being systems engineering, system dynamics, organizational cybernetics, and soft systems thinking. Critical systems thinking helps us to understand the relative strengths and weaknesses of these systems approaches in dealing with different aspects of complexity. It recommends using systems methodologies, models, and methods in informed combinations when confronted by complexity. Critical systems practice sets out how such multi-methodological interventions can be undertaken and evaluated.

Date and time: Monday, 22 March 2021; 8 am (U.S. Pacific) / 11 am (U.S. Eastern) / 3pm (London) / 8.30 pm (New Delhi)

Duration: 1 h 30 min (including Q&A).

Moderators: Professor Andrey Pavlov & Dr Ibrat Djabbarov, Cranfield School of Management, Cranfield University, UK

About the speaker
Michael C. Jackson is Emeritus Professor at the University of Hull and MD of Systems Research Ltd. Mike is known as a key figure in the development of ‘critical systems thinking’ – a topic on which he has published ten books and over 150 articles. His latest book Critical Systems Thinking and the Management of Complexity was published in 2019.Time

Mar 22, 2021 03:00 PM in London

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Meeting Registration – Zoom

source: https://www.olset.co.uk/professional-certification-in-olset/

(this is what OLSET is: https://olset.org/about-olset

and a book: https://www.olset.co.uk/the-book/ )

Professional Certification in Organizational Learning, Systems Thinking & OLSET

Date: Six sequential Sundays starting from Sunday 6th of June at 16.00 GMT
Location: online

Are you a leader, a management consultant or a facilitator?
Do you want to certify your knowledge of Organizational Learning and Systems Thinking?

• Learn and get certified by two of the field’s most renowned experts: Guus Geisen and Anthi Theiopoulou!
Do you want to be able to apply management’s newest approach to your projects with the help of the OLSET technology?

• Scale up your participative projects with Organizational Learning and Systems Thinking – management’s newest approach! The OLSET Platform allows you to scale up your Organisational Development, Change, Lean, Kaizen, BPR, Knowledge management, Canban or Sustainability projects. Now you can be in many places at the same time using a software to scale up your project no matter the size you are dealing with! Learn how to facilitate others to use our digital decision making tools to thrive in any future.

Do you want to add more cutting edge services to your portfolio?

• Start auditing and certifying learning organisations!
• Start facilitating OLSET development projects for organisations!
• Get the single-user version free for all forever!

If you answered YES in any of these question, then this online intensive seminar and certification is for you!

Even if there are various workshops on this same topic, it is the first time that such in-depth knowhow as well as that certification is provided publicly. The principles and mechanics of creation (or vision creation) are so concisely, vigorously and yet simply presented, that will enable you to re-engineer and strategise your organisation exactly as you want it – no matter its scale! It is also an opportunity to increase the value of all your services with our high profile and quality certification.THE OLSET …

• … system synthesises relevant scientific research and empirical observation by world known Organizational Learning (OL) experts.
• … approach enables management and leadership consultants to enhance their participative leadership practice and to do so at a scale not achievable before.
• … software is the only operational OL platform in the world that is currently available.
• …certification is the only one offered for OL and ST worldwide and will significantly increase the value of your services 
• ….technology operationalises management’s newest approach
• ….services will be added to your portfolio (audits and development projects)
• ….tools allow directors to manage their agile teams in less time than ever before, while overseeing the big picture and bringing the details into focus

This is an opportunity to become pioneers in the field as it is the first time that standardised, replicable and scalable services related to OL and ST are offered such as auditing and strategic transformation. Quarterly meetings for sustenance and upgrades will be also offered for Certified practitioners.

OLSET Consultants’ Certification Workshop Design

Day 1 (3h): Critical OL and ST theory
Measurement of OL Capacity
Step 0

Day 2 (3h): Systemic Structure Map (Step 1)

Day 3 (3h): Systemic Action Map (Step 2)
AAR (Step 3 and OMS)

Day 4 (2h): participants’ case studies
Day 5 (2h): participants’ case studies
Day 6 (2h): participants’ case studies

Trainers: Guus Geisen, Anthi Theiopoulou, Odysseas Velentzas
Fees: 250 GBP,

• 10 % discount for each additional registration received from the same organisation,
• 10% discount to early bird registration (until 30 April), and
• 10% discount to members of the SoL, AoH, WC, OST, AI networks.

To register contact us .We look forward to meeting you!

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Speedrun: “Sensemaking” – drossbucket

Speedrun: “Sensemaking”

March 14, 2021Lucy Keer

This is a genre of post I’ve been experimenting with where I pick a topic, set a one hour timer and see what I can find out in that time. Previously: Marx on alienation and the Vygotsky Circle.

I’ve been seeing the term ‘sensemaking’ crop up more and more often. I even went to a workshop with the word in the title last year! I quite like it, and god knows we could all do with making more sense right now, but I’m pretty vague on the details. Are there any nuances of meaning that I’m missing by interpreting it in its everyday sense? I have a feeling that it has a kind of ecological tinge, group sensemaking more than individual sensemaking, but I could be off the mark.

Speedrun: “Sensemaking” March 14, 2021Lucy Keer This is a genre of post I’ve been experimenting with where I pick a topic, set a one hour timer and see what I can find out in that time. Previously: Marx on alienation and the Vygotsky Circle. I’ve been seeing the term ‘sensemaking’ crop up more and more often. I even went to a workshop with the word in the title last year! I quite like it, and god knows we could all do with making more sense right now, but I’m pretty vague on the details. Are there any nuances of meaning that I’m missing by interpreting it in its everyday sense? I have a feeling that it has a kind of ecological tinge, group sensemaking more than individual sensemaking, but I could be off the mark.

Speedrun: “Sensemaking” – drossbucket

see also tweet responses:

I get a namecheck in the podcast, which made me smile! Thanks guys.

New Books Network | Ray Ison and Ed Straw, “The Hidden Power of…

Ray Ison and Ed Straw

Feb 8, 2021

The Hidden Power of Systems Thinking

Governance in a Climate Emergency

ROUTLEDGE 2020

The Hidden Power of Systems Thinking: Governance in Climate Emergency (Routledge, 2020) is a persuasive, lively book that shows how systems thinking can be harnessed to effect profound, complex change. 

In the age of the Anthropocene the need for new ways of thinking and acting has become urgent. But patterns of obstacles are apparent in any action – be they corporate interests, lobbyists, or outdated political and government systems.

Ray Ison and Ed Straw show how and why failure in governance is at the heart of our collective incapacity to tackle climate and biodiversity emergencies. They suggest the need for a ‘systemic sensibility’ as a first step in breaking these models, and encourage a reimagining of governance – with the biosphere situated at the center. 

They go beyond analysis of problems, providing actionable guidance for incorporating systems thinking in practice (STiP) into every level of governance, and provide the reader with 21 actionable takeaway principles for systemic governance. 

The Hidden Power of Systems Thinking will be inspiring reading for students of systems thinking that want to understand the application of their methods, specialists in change management or public administration, activists for ‘whole system change’ as well as decision-makers wanting to effect challenging transformations. This book is for anyone with the ambition to create a sustainable and fair world.

NBN listeners can get a discount on this book by entering the code FLR40 at the Routledge website. https://playlist.megaphone.fm/?e=NBN7342650766

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New Books Network | Ray Ison and Ed Straw, “The Hidden Power of…

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SCiO UK Virtual Open Meeting – March 2021 | SCiO

SCiO UK Virtual Open Meeting – March 2021

Mon 22 March 2021 18:30–20:30  GMTEvent type:
Open MeetingOrganiser(s):
SCiO UKEvent access:All welcomeBook now

SCiO UK Virtual Open Meeting – March 2021

Virtual Open Meeting: A series of presentations of general interest to Systems & Complexity in Organisation’s members and others.

About this Event

SCiO organises Open Meetings to provide opportunities for practitioners to learn and develop new practice, to build relationships, networks hear about skills, tools, practice and experiences. This virtual session will be held on Zoom, the details of which will be confirmed nearer the time.

The programme for 22 March is as follows:

18:30 – Welcome, SCiO notices, virtual housekeeping

18:40 – Check-in

18:50 – Session 1 (The Variety Calculus – concepts and methodologies to address increasing complexity followed by Q & A ) – Gordon Niven

19:40 – Session 2 (Rewilding Public Services: taking a design turn with 7 Starlings CIC followed by Q & A) – Lesley Rowan

20:25 – Summary and close

20:30 – 21:00 (Optional) – virtual networking

Event Resources

The Variety Calculus – concepts and methodologies to address increasing complexity

The Variety Calculus was developed by Dr Gordon Niven and Lt Gen Sir David Capewell as an approach to addressing the increasing complexity of military operations and operating environments. It is a synthesis of concepts from cybernetics, complexity theory and systems thinking that seeks to provide a… Read moreAuthors

Gordon Niven

Rewilding Public Services: taking a design turn with 7 Starlings CIC

At the September 2020 SCiO Open Day Ray Ison and Ed Straw drew on their newly published book ‘The Hidden Power of Systems Thinking’.  They presented a case for the importance of Systems Thinking in Practice (STiP) for addressing a range of current crises including the climate emergency. They argued … Read moreAuthorsLesley RowanDate & TimeMon 22 March 2021 18:30–20:30LocationThis is an online event.Pricing InfoFREELanguages spoken

book at source:

SCiO UK Virtual Open Meeting – March 2021 | SCiO

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Introduction to the Viable System Model – Intelligente-Organisationen

Introduction to the Viable System Model

My Video Lectures about the Viable System Model

Finally, I am releasing the first three videos about my introduction to the Viable System Model. I decided that I wanted to share everything I have understood so far, but not in a written form anymore. Therefore, I produced a series of simple screen captures and dared to do it freestyle … in English … for the first time! People asked me on different occasions if I could provide one of my books in English. Since I see in the next years no personal capacity to translate an existing book, I will continue to produce some more videos – it’s the easiest and fastest way for me to do a brain dump.

Beware of the German English!

I have to warn you upfront that I am speaking in these videos my special way of „Ginglish“ = German English – I make many mistakes. Nevertheless, I hope that I am still able to transport the ideas of the VSM properly. So, what can you expect from the first videos?

The big Why of the Viable System Model!

The first session deals with the question of what makes the Viable System Model so different from other approaches?

continues in source:

Introduction to the Viable System Model – Intelligente-Organisationen

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Thinking systems

• Geoff Mulgan

Thinking systems

This draft paper describes methods for understanding how vital everyday systems work, and how they could work better, through improved shared cognition – observation, memory, creativity and judgement – organised as commons.

Much of our life we depend on systems: interconnected webs of activity that link many organisations, technologies and people. These bring us food and clothing; energy for warmth and light; mobility including rail, cars and global air travel; care, welfare and handling of waste. Arguably the biggest difference between the modern world and the world of a few centuries ago is the thickness and complexity of these systems. These have brought huge gains.

But one of their downsides is that they have made the world around us harder to understand or shape. A good example is the Internet: essential to much of daily life but largely obscure and opaque to its users. Its physical infrastructures, management, protocols and flows are almost unknown except to specialists, as are its governance structures and processes (if you are in any doubt, just ask a random sample of otherwise well-informed people). Other vital systems like those for food, energy or care are also hardly visible to those within them as well as those dependent on them. This makes it much harder to hold them to account, or to ensure they take account of more voices and needs. We often feel that the world is much more accessible thanks to powerful search engines and ubiquitous data. But try to get a picture of the systems around you and you quickly discover just how much is opaque and obscure.

If you think seriously about these systems it’s also hard not to be struck by another feature. Our systems generally use much more data and knowledge than their equivalents in the past. But this progress also highlights what’s missing in the data they use (often including the most important wants and needs). Moreover, huge amounts of potentially relevant data is lost immediately or never captured and how much that is captured is then neither organised nor shared. The result is a strangely lop-sided world: vast quantities of data are gathered and organised at great expense for some purposes (notably defense or click-through advertising)

So how could we recapture our systems and help them make the most of intelligence of all kinds? The paper shares methods and approaches that could make our everyday systems richer in intelligence and also easier to guide. It advocates:

· A cognitive approach to systems – focusing on how they think, and specifically how they observe, analyse, create and remember. It argues that this approach can help to bridge the often abstract language of systems thinking and practical action

· It advocates that much of this systems intelligence needs to be organised as a commons – which is very rarely the case now

· And it advocates new structures and roles within government and other organisations, and the growth of a practice of systems architects with skills straddling engineering, management, data and social science – who are adept at understanding, designing and improving intelligent systems that are transparent and self-aware.

The background to the paper is the great paradox of systems right now: there is a vast literature, a small industry of consultancies and labs, and no shortage of rhetorical commitment in many fields. Yet these have had at best uneven impact on how decisions are made or large organisations are run.

In the paper I show the relevance of some of the methods I suggest for governments seeking to better address challenges such as decarbonisation and care for the elderly; in relation to business I suggest that the West has tended to fall behind China in terms of designing and operating complex, interconnected systems straddling many fields, an ability which will be vital for the future of finance, energy and transport; and for citizens, I emphasise how greater influence can be achieved over systems which are now surprisingly opaque.

In summary I argue that although we live surrounded by systems we struggle to understand them let alone to guide and control them. I believe we need a novel approach that focuses on how to enrich and open up the shared intelligence of the systems around us. This is the next step to take – building on the extraordinary achievements of the Internet itself, open data and other movements, and taking us to a world where there are accessible representations of the multiple systems on which we depend. My aim is to suggest some of the tools, insights and resources we could use to do this. The paper is shared as a first draft to elicit comments and improvements.

The full paper can be found here: https://www.ucl.ac.uk/steapp/sites/steapp/files/thinking_systems_2021_mulgan.pdf

Geoff Mulgan 17 hours ago 3 min read Thinking systems

Thinking systems

On #InternationalWomensDay we’d like to pause and celebrate just a small slice of the enormous contributions to science women have made here at SFI. Read the thread below for links to some of their own favorite research papers, and a few nominated by other SFI faculty members:

(1) Santa Fe Institute on Twitter: “On #InternationalWomensDay we’d like to pause and celebrate just a small slice of the enormous contributions to science women have made here at SFI. Read the thread below for links to some of their own favorite research papers, and a few nominated by other SFI faculty members: https://t.co/OeeSNfNiJP” / Twitter

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(PDF) Reconceptualizing Systemic Change, Using An Ecosystem Approach from Process-function Ecology

Ashwani Vasishth, Ramapo College

Download full-text PDFRead full-textDownload citationCopy linkReferences (39)

Abstract

We care about systemic change because truly complex socio-ecological systems are often intractable to the imposition of intentional change. This intractability derives in large part from certain intrinsic properties of complex systems, namely their nested and scale hierarchic structure and the fact that they are comprised, essentially, of processes and functions rather than objects and entities (vasishth 2008). As such, they are harder to “move,” given that they are not things to be pulled or pushed,

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(PDF) Reconceptualizing Systemic Change, Using An Ecosystem Approach from Process-function Ecology

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Competence in Complexity

Kitbag OnlineSupporting IFFSite search

Competence in Complexity

The Competence in Complexity programme offers a year-long process for participants to develop their 21st century competencies and to demonstrate them in practice in effective, transformative action.  Next Programme May 2021 – May 2022 The programme is hosted in our online Atelier space, a dedicated virtual space for participants to connect, converse, share and access materials, resources and insights and to remain ‘on campus’ throughout in a dedicated community of practice.   All workshops in the programme are conducted online to allow for international participation.   The curriculum is designed around three modules (see graphic).  Each is designed to be a valuable and rounded experience in itself.  We recommend, however, that participants take the full programme in order to gain maximum benefit from a supported learning environment designed for slow, substantial growth and development over the course of a full year.   Click the blue button above for a full programme description and other details about scheduling and fees.   The programme is based on IFF’s books Dancing at the Edge:  Competence, Culture and Organisation in the 21st Century by Maureen O’Hara and Graham Leicester, Three Horizons:  The patterning of hope by Bill Sharpe, and Transformative Innovation:  a guide to practice and policy for system transition by Graham Leicester. A distinctive approach to competenceDancing at the Edge takes a distinctive stand in relation to competence:We follow the OECD definition that competence is not an abstract achievement but “the ability to meet important challenges in life in a complex world”; This is not a capacity of the individual.  Our competence is always demonstrated in a human system, in a culture, in a pattern of relationships; Competencies are qualities of persons as a whole.  They cannot be distinguished one from another, developed in isolation and mastered one stage at a time. The 21st century competencies are innate – we come designed for a complex world.  But they require the right setting to show themselves and a supportive environment in which to develop. We know that these competencies exist because we have seen them demonstrated in practice by the ‘persons of tomorrow’ all around us. Fundamentals:  the core processThe first step is awareness: ‘waking up’ ways of reading the landscape and our capacities for being, knowing, and being together comfortably in complexity. The second step is tuning up the qualities that sustain us in powerful times and that provide a facilitating environment for growth, development and action. The third step is to demonstrate and develop 21st century competencies in effective action that feeds our purpose and our aspirations for the future.  This is the practice of transformative innovation: introducing the new in the presence of the old.  Note that this framework builds on Delors’ UNESCO report on education for the 21st Century, Learning: the treasure within. It identifies the four critical tasks for today’s world as learning to be, learning to know, learning to do and learning to be together. In practice people move back and forth across this map, always blending awareness, development and action, always reflecting, always learning. The ProgrammeThe full programme for individuals and organisations contains three modules roughly corresponding to the three steps outlined in the process map.   Each module involves preparation and follow-up.  The full programme runs over the course of a year with substantial gaps between intensive workshops.  This is a reflective and recursive process to allow for growth. The first module, awakening psychological, knowledge and cultural literacies (ways of reading the complex landscape), is focused on being, knowing and being together.  This last embraces culture, but also organising and working together. That provides a bridge into the second module, focused on how to work with insight derived from ways of being and seeing explored in the first module to develop and implement a transformative initiative, demonstrating 21st century competencies in action.  The third module is a guided process of action learning, with regular check-ins and learning sets, focused on delivering results. At the end of the Programme there is a completion process to review and consolidate learning and graduation for those who have completed the programme and delivered their projects. Note that we also offer individual Modules, including the six month Capability Accelerator, to organisations, adapted to context as necessary, for a minimum cohort of 10 participants. We also host a half-day workshop that serves as an introduction to the full programme for newcomers and a useful refresher for previous participants.  This is scheduled from time to time (check the Calendar) and is also available on demand for interested organisations and groups. Book Your PlaceYou may pay online or request an invoice to reserve your place. For more information please contact Camilla Storrie at IFF either by email or on +44 (0)1383 324002.  Enquire about participation in a Competence in Complexity programme

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Competence in Complexity

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Chaos and Life | Columbia University Press

PUB DATE: November 2003

ISBN: 9780231126625

352 pages

FORMAT: Hardcover

LIST PRICE: $65.00£54.00ADD TO CART

PUB DATE: November 2003

ISBN: 9780231501552

352 pages

FORMAT: E-book

LIST PRICE: $64.99£54.00GET THE E-BOOK

Chaos and Life: Complexity and Order in Evolution and Thought

Richard J. Bird

Columbia University Press

Why, in a scientific age, do people routinely turn to astrologers, mediums, cultists, and every kind of irrational practitioner rather than to science to meet their spiritual needs? The answer, according to Richard J. Bird, is that science, especially biology, has embraced a view of life that renders meaningless the coincidences, serendipities, and other seemingly significant occurrences that fill people’s everyday existence.

Evolutionary biology rests on the assumption that although events are fundamentally random, some are selected because they are better adapted than others to the surrounding world. This book proposes an alternative view of evolving complexity. Bird argues that randomness means not disorder but infinite order. Complexity arises not from many random events of natural selection (although these are not unimportant) but from the “playing out” of chaotic systems—which are best described mathematically. When we properly understand the complex interplay of chaos and life, Bird contends, we will see that many events that appear random are actually the outcome of order.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Richard J. Bird is visiting scholar and sometime senior lecturer at Northumbria University in Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK. He is past president of the Society for Chaos Theory in Psychology and Life Sciences.

a nice mini-review given by Michael Garfield (edited by me to remove specifics of the conversation):

With respect to “where does complexity exist”, I wonder who has read Richard Bird’s Chaos & Life?

http://cup.columbia.edu/book/chaos-and-life/9780231126625

“Evolutionary biology rests on the assumption that although events are fundamentally random, some are selected because they are better adapted than others to the surrounding world. This book proposes an alternative view of evolving complexity. Bird argues that randomness means not disorder but infinite order. Complexity arises not from many random events of natural selection (although these are not unimportant) but from the ‘playing out’ of chaotic systems—which are best described mathematically. When we properly understand the complex interplay of chaos and life, Bird contends, we will see that many events that appear random are actually the outcome of order.”

Since reading this book I’ve taken complexity not to be emergent in some kind of “Bottom-Up Great Chain of Being” sense but as potentially just order imported from an environment that APPEARS random because we’re either incapable of adequate granularity to tease apart causation in stochastic micro-systems (like “random” mutations, which is in my opinion very successfully interrogated by the interaction-based evolutionary theory of Haifa University’s Adi Livnat, in which gene regulatory complexes “learn” just like neural networks) or the macro-systems in which we are embedded are too vast for us to understand (we can’t pay enough attention to grasp hyperobjects).In other words, we’re evolved to coarse-grain the world in a way that hides complexity at the micro AND macro scales, and in a weird sense, complexity IS homogeneous in one key way even if it’s importantly NOT to any given relative observer.

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Chaos and Life | Columbia University Press